Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): Kaufen
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 09.07.2024
Target price: EUR 54.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Stellar Q2 lottery environment to drive top-line; chg. est. & PT
Topic: Q2 data of Germany’s most popular lottery products are in the books, here's our analysis:
After a very strong Q1 (4x peak jackpots), the EuroJackpot (eNuW: 45% of ZEAL's lottery billings) again showed a stellar performance. Two peak jackpots were spread apart in 12 draws (i.e. 6 weeks), meaning that during the build up to the high jackpot, the lottery stakes grew gradually over time. This resulted in an elevated average jackpot size of € 61m (vs. c. € 42m on average). Accordingly, lottery stakes remitted nationwide rose by 23% yoy to € 1.27bn. Even more remarkable, this accounts for another 10% qoq growth over the blow-out Q1’24 and is 52% above the historical average (see p. 2).
On the other hand, Lotto 6aus49 (eNuW: 45% of ZEAL's lottery billings) did not peak even once and with the largest jackpot of only € 24m (vs. € 50m peak jackpot) showed a rather uninspiring environment in Q2. As a result, the remitted stakes came in at € 844m, down 8% yoy and 8% qoq (see p. 2).
Combined, the strong EuroJackpot and the muted Lotto 6aus49 led to an increase of lottery stakes of 8% yoy and 2% qoq to € 2.12bn, which is a stellar 17% above the historical average (see p. 2).
In sum, we expect Zeal to strongly capitalize on the Q2 jackpot tailwinds in terms of a) user intake of c. 200k new registrations (eNuW) and b) an elevated user activity leading to a better product mix and thus a higher billings margin (eNuW: 13% in Q2), both serving the current top-line momentum.
As a result, a guidance hike as early as Q2 results seems ever more likely, as we now expect overall sales of € 155m (vs. guidance of € 140-150m). On top of 1) H1’s superb lottery environment, pushing H1 sales and more importantly the user base above prior expectations, H2's top-line momentum should continue, even in muted lottery environments, due to 2) ZEAL’s lottery billings margin expansion to >15% in H2 and thanks to 3) the expansion of the Games business. Consequently, EBITDA should now arrive at the top end of the guidance (eNuW: € 42m; guidance: € 38-42m) despite increasing indirect costs (eNuW: € 25m, +78% yoy) due to investments into a new social lottery and assuming marketing expenses of € 46m (guidance: € 40-45m).
Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and increase our PT to € 54.00 (old: € 53.00), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/30167.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
| Sales1 | 154,75 | 113,48 | 87,02 | 83,33 | 105,20 | 116,05 | 182,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 38,31 | 17,91 | 17,33 | 27,73 | 31,66 | 32,91 | 58,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 24,76 | 15,78 | 19,92 | 33,28 | 30,10 | 28,36 | 31,87 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 38,31 | 9,07 | 5,38 | 19,05 | 22,93 | 23,65 | 48,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 24,76 | 7,99 | 6,18 | 22,86 | 21,80 | 20,38 | 26,37 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 26,66 | 1,72 | 7,89 | 11,40 | 16,57 | 13,72 | 31,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 17,23 | 1,52 | 9,07 | 13,68 | 15,75 | 11,82 | 17,03 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 38,20 | 5,30 | 5,37 | 26,16 | 28,49 | 25,57 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 3,18 | 0,09 | 0,37 | 0,48 | 0,72 | 0,59 | 1,43 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 1,00 | 0,80 | 0,90 | 2,10 | 3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Ernst & Young
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| ZEAL Network | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| ZEAL24 | DE000ZEAL241 | SE | 1.039,79 Mio € | 12.10.2005 | Halten | 9F5FHXJG+9R |
| PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 41,38 | 20,32 | 2,04 | 50,21 | 4,42 | 40,67 | 8,96 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 | 2,29% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 21.05.2025 | 07.05.2025 | 06.08.2025 | 06.11.2024 | 26.03.2025 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| +16,58% | +30,95% | +44,14% | +54,84% | +134,15% |
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