Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): Kaufen
Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG
Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 27.05.2024
Target price: EUR 1.20
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
EGM approved merger with CAPEX chg est. & PT
Topic: During the recently held extraordinary general meeting, NAGA received the approval for the merger with CAPEX with a 99.81% majority. As the pending regulatory change of control process is rather a formality, we adjust our estimates, now fully reflecting the merger with CAPEX. For FY24 we now expect:
Sales of € 77.8m, resulting from 15.9m transactions (eNuW) and an avg. revenue per trade of € 4.9 (eNuw). Apart from the technical impact of the merger, the stronger trading figures from peers that indicate an upswing of customer activity in the market, paired with cross-selling potentials between NAGA and CAPEX, are driving sales. The number of active customers (eNuW: 46k) and trading volumes (eNuW: € 340bn; € 21.4k per trade) should develop accordingly.
EBITDA is expected to come in at a solid € 10.1m, thanks to the strong topline development as well as anticipated synergy effects. While management expects an OPEX reduction of some € 10m, we are a bit more conservative, anticipating only € 8.5m (eNuW: marketing spending: € 4m, personnel expenses: € 2.5m, other operating expenses € 2m). EBT is seen at negative € 0.7m.
Despite the fact, that the merger looks like an unfavourable deal for existing shareholder due to its dilutive nature(existing shareholders possess only 25% of all outstanding shares post merger and the outstanding convertible bond as well as management's long-term incentive scheme could dilute them further), the growth potential of the joint Group is huge: In 2026, management plans to generate USD 250m in sales with 40% EBITDA margins. While we think this is a rather optimistic scenario, the past has already shown that an incremental positive change in the sentiment could have an enormous effect on the P&L of NAGA. The leverage of the joint Group could even scale this effect. Still, in our base case scenario we conservatively only anticipating € 98m in sales and an EBITDA € 20m (20% EBITDA margin), leaving room for positive surprises.
In light of the revitalization of customer activity in the brokerage space, paired with cross-selling and synergy effects arising from the merger, we see significant growth potential again.
BUY with a new PT of € 1.20 (old: € 1.30), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29889.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
| Sales1 | 16,12 | 7,62 | 24,35 | 52,88 | 57,60 | 39,73 | 80,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 0,27 | -9,17 | 4,50 | -4,20 | -13,73 | 8,45 | 11,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 1,68 | -120,34 | 18,48 | -7,94 | -23,84 | 21,27 | 13,75 | |
| EBIT1,4 | -4,82 | -12,18 | 0,94 | -9,55 | -36,86 | -57,59 | 1,50 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | -29,90 | -159,84 | 3,86 | -18,06 | -63,99 | -144,95 | 1,88 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | -4,10 | -13,38 | 0,17 | -10,76 | -44,25 | -60,97 | -0,90 | |
| Net-Margin6 | -25,43 | -175,59 | 0,70 | -20,35 | -76,82 | -153,46 | -1,13 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | -2,93 | -2,40 | 1,61 | -12,90 | -14,52 | -0,91 | 1,80 | |
| Earnings per share8 | -0,10 | -0,30 | -0,01 | -0,23 | -0,82 | -1,13 | -0,02 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: MSW
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| Naga Group | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| A161NR | DE000A161NR7 | AG | 161,56 Mio € | 10.07.2017 | 9F5FHX3Q+82 | |
| PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 0,00 | 1,72 | 0,00 | -2,26 | 3,27 | -177,15 | 4,07 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 30.08.2024 | 30.10.2024 | 28.06.2024 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -10,28% | -14,15% | -33,08% | -36,07% | -72,46% |
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