Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): Buy
Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG
Company Name: THE NAGA GROUP AG
ISIN: DE000A161NR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 11.07.2024
Target price: EUR 1.20
Last rating change:
Analyst: Frederik Jarchow
FY23 out // Softer topline but strong EBITDA; chg.
Topic: NAGA recently reported FY23 figures that came with a slight miss on
the topline and a positive
surprise on the bottom line. A D&A one-off makes EBIT look ugly. In detail:
Sales of € 39.7m (NAGA standalone), are below prelims of € 45.5m resulting from the lower than anticipated avg. revenue per trade of only € 4.3 (vs. eNuW: € 4.9) and 9.2m transactions (both NAGA standalone).
EBITDA came in higher than expected at € 8.4m (vs. prelims: € 7.0m), thanks
to significantly lower
marketing expenses (€ 4.6m vs. eNuW: € 5.9m), personnel expenses (€ 6.5m vs
eNuW: € 7.9m) andR&D costs (€ 3.4m vs. eNuW: € 5.2m) overcompensating for
the weaker topline and higher other operating expenses (€ 9.8m vs. eNuW: €
5.9m). EBT of € -61m (vs. eNuW: € -2.4m), is mainly burdenedone-off
amortization to the tune of € 57m as a result of the valuation related to
the merger with capex.
Looking into 2024, the outlook for the joint Group shines bright: Trading
activity of peers that seem to revitalize and cross-selling potentials
between NAGA and capex should fuel the number of transactions to15.9m and
hence sales to € 71.8m, assuming an avg. revenue per trade of € 5.0.
Synergy effects and
ongoing disciplined spending are expected to additionally drive EBITDA to €
11.5m. As we do not expect further meaningful amortizations in FY24, EBIT
should come in at € 1.6m (eNuW).
Going forward, management has ambitious growth plans expecting to generate USD 250m sales with a 40% EBITDA margin until FY26. While we think this is a rather optimistic scenario, the past has already shown that an incremental positive change of the public markets' sentiment could have an enormous effect on the P&L of NAGA. The leverage of the joint Group could even scale this effect. Still, in our base case scenario we conservatively only anticipating € 90m in sales and EBITDA of € 19m (22% EBITDA margin), leaving room for positive surprises.
Overall, the revitalization of customer activity in the brokerage space, paired with cross-selling and synergy effects arising from the merger should bode well for NAGA. Details of the growth plan should be unveiled during today´s CDM starting at 4pm CEST.
BUY with an unchanged PT of € 1.20 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/30193.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | ||
| Sales1 | 7,62 | 24,35 | 52,88 | 57,60 | 39,73 | 80,00 | 0,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | -9,17 | 4,50 | -4,20 | -13,73 | 8,45 | 11,00 | 0,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | -120,34 | 18,48 | -7,94 | -23,84 | 21,27 | 13,75 | 0,00 | |
| EBIT1,4 | -12,18 | 0,94 | -9,55 | -36,86 | -57,59 | 1,50 | 0,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | -159,84 | 3,86 | -18,06 | -63,99 | -144,95 | 1,88 | 0,00 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | -13,38 | 0,17 | -10,76 | -44,25 | -60,97 | -0,90 | 0,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | -175,59 | 0,70 | -20,35 | -76,82 | -153,46 | -1,13 | 0,00 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | -2,40 | 1,61 | -12,90 | -14,52 | -0,91 | 1,80 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | -0,30 | -0,01 | -0,23 | -0,82 | -1,13 | -0,02 | -0,01 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: MSW
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| Naga Group | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| A161NR | DE000A161NR7 | AG | 159,31 Mio € | 10.07.2017 | 9F5FHX3Q+82 | |
| PE 2026e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | -2,23 | 3,22 | -174,68 | 4,02 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 30.08.2024 | 30.10.2024 | 28.06.2024 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -8,90% | -14,11% | -1,40% | -23,28% | -73,00% |
Founded in 2013 by Gereon Kruse, the financial portal boersengefluester.de is all about German shares - with a clear focus on second-line stocks. In addition to traditional editorial articles, the site stands out in particular thanks to a large number of self-developed analysis tools. All tools are based on a completely self-maintained database for more than 650 shares. As a result, boersengefluester.de produces Germany's largest profit and dividend forecast.
Contact
