Original-Research: NFON AG (von NuWays AG): Buy
|
Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Strongly improved Q3 beats profitability estimates; chg. Q3 sales came in at € 21.7m (eNuW: € 21.6m), implying a 5.9% yoy increase. This was mainly based on an improved seat base of 666k (+3.1% yoy) as well as up-selling effects leading to an improved blended ARPU (ex SIP trunk) of € 9.88 (vs € 9.73 in 9M ’23). Further, we saw a first improvement of nonrecurring hardware sales, which increased 6.1% yoy to € 1.2m (vs -12.1% in H1 ’24). Recurring sales increased by 5.9% yoy to € 20.5m, implying a recurring revenue ratio of 94.9%. Q3 adj. EBITDA improved disproportionately to € 3.5m (+35% yoy; eNuW: € 2.9m), implying a margin of 16.3% (+3.6pp yoy). This should have been partly driven by the improved gross margin (+1.1pp yoy to 85.6%) as well as the imposed efficiency measures in personnel (cost ratio -1.4pp yoy) and other OpEx (-0.6pp yoy). Unadjusted EBITDA came in at € 3.1m, up from € 2.3m in the same period last year. Despite this, FCF came in weaker than expected at € 0.7m, which was mainly caused by an unfavorable WC swing in Q3. Yet FCF at 9M significantly improved yoy to € 2.7m (vs € 0.8m at 9M ’23). Against this backdrop management confirmed the FY guidance of mid-to-upper SD-% recurring revenue growth, although specifying it to the lower end (eNuW: +5.2% yoy), adjusted EBITDA of € 10-12m (eNuW: € 12.0m) as well as a recurring revenue ratio of 90+%, which should be easily achieved given the 9M ratio of 94.3%. Our recurring revenue estimate hereby implies 6.1% growth in Q4 as well as an adjusted EBITDA of € 2.9m, which should be in the cards given the strong Q3 figure. Mind you, the guidance does not include the acquisition of botario, which was closed at the end of Q3. Speaking of which, management provided more detail on the deal, disclosing a purchase price of € 18.1m implying a 34x EV/EBITDA, whereby € 10.9m were paid at closing with the remainder being subject to earn-outs. While this does not look cheap at first glance, mind you that botario is projected to achieve 40+% top-line growth with EBITDA margins north of 30% going forward. Moreover, it significantly enhances NFON’s AI capabilities and creates valuable cross-selling opportunities. We therefore regard the deal as strategically highly reasonable. Valuation continues to be attractive given that shares are trading at 7.1x EV/adj. EBITDA '24e (5.1x '25e) and an adj. FCFY25e of 13.7%. We hence reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 11.70 PT based on DCF and confirm the stock as one of our top-picks in our NuWays Alpha List. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31415.pdf For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. |
||||||||||||||||||||
2036127 22.11.2024 CET/CEST
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
| Sales1 | 43,03 | 57,12 | 67,60 | 75,89 | 80,79 | 82,34 | 88,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | -7,78 | -6,98 | 2,32 | -2,03 | -5,27 | 6,80 | 10,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | -18,08 | -12,22 | 3,43 | -2,68 | -6,52 | 8,26 | 11,36 | |
| EBIT1,4 | -8,47 | -9,99 | -1,83 | -8,97 | -12,03 | -0,52 | 2,50 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | -19,68 | -17,49 | -2,71 | -11,82 | -14,89 | -0,63 | 2,84 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | -8,11 | -10,92 | -2,24 | -8,91 | -15,58 | -0,80 | 1,90 | |
| Net-Margin6 | -18,85 | -19,12 | -3,31 | -11,74 | -19,29 | -0,97 | 2,16 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | -4,96 | -7,19 | 1,15 | -1,76 | -3,87 | 6,84 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | -0,76 | -0,77 | -0,15 | -0,54 | -0,94 | -0,05 | 0,11 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: KPMG
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| NFON | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| A0N4N5 | DE000A0N4N52 | AG | 85,29 Mio € | 11.05.2018 | 8FWH4G3G+8X | |
| PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 28,61 | 46,82 | 0,61 | -17,05 | 1,81 | 12,47 | 1,04 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 26.06.2025 | 22.05.2025 | 21.08.2025 | 21.11.2024 | 17.04.2025 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -6,65% | -10,85% | -24,93% | -21,97% | -57,08% |
Founded in 2013 by Gereon Kruse, the financial portal boersengefluester.de is all about German shares - with a clear focus on second-line stocks. In addition to traditional editorial articles, the site stands out in particular thanks to a large number of self-developed analysis tools. All tools are based on a completely self-maintained database for more than 650 shares. As a result, boersengefluester.de produces Germany's largest profit and dividend forecast.
Contact
