ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
WKN: ZEAL24
24 April 2024 09:02AM

Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): Kaufen

ZEAL Network SE · ISIN: DE000ZEAL241 · EQS - Analysts
Country: Germany · Primary market: Germany · EQS NID: 19509

Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 24.04.2024
Target price: EUR 51.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Q1 preview: EuroJackpot to deliver remarkable top-line

Topic: Q1 results are due May 8th 2024 and we expect ZEAL to show a remarkable top-line thanks to a superb jackpot environment, leading to elevated user activity. In detail:

Thanks to the EuroJackpot peaking 4x at the start of Q1, the nationwide stakes amounted to € 2.07bn in Q1 (EuroJackot and Lotto 6aus49 together), which are 16% above the quarterly average of € 1.79bn and 12% higher than Q1’23 (see p. 2). For ZEAL, this should translate into increased user activity with 1.26m MAUs (+15% yoy) and an ABPU of € 62.00 (+2% yoy), thus elevating Lottery billings to € 234m (+17% yoy), according to our estimates.

Lottery sales are seen at € 31m (+24% yoy) thanks to the elevated billings, but also driven by our estimate of an improving billings margin of 13.2% (eNuW; +0.8pp yoy), as during high jackpot environments, ZEAL’s product mix usually shifts towards higher margin products like lottery clubs.

For Games, we conservatively expect a slight pick-up in MAUs to 20k (Q4’24: 18k), as the roll-out should have remained slightly burdened by later than expected regulatory approvals of each new game. Also, assuming a constant pay-in to billings ratio of 4.9x and a constant billings-margin of 7.5%, billings from Games are hence expected at € 25m and sales at € 1.9m respectively.

In sum, Q1 sales should arrive at € 34.8m (+30% yoy), showing a remarkable top-line dynamic. On the other hand, we expect a significant marketing push of € 14m (vs. € 7m in Q1’23 with no peak jackpot) to burden profitability with an EBITDA of € 5.1m (15% margin; -20pp yoy).

In return, this should have led to a strongly increased user base, as ZEAL usually gains c. 100k new registrations per peak jackpot. We hence expect c. 300-400k new registrations and c. 75-100k new MAUs (25% conversion rate) for the Lottery business, adding some € 47-63m in CLTVs to ZEAL’s total Lottery user base; CLTV of € 726m as of Y/E’23. This looks set to more than compensate the € 14m expected marketing expense, showing the value-accretive nature of ZEAL's customer acquisition strategy.

Against this backdrop, we expect ZEAL to capitalize strongly from Q1’s jackpot environment as the company’s value accretive performance marketing drives user intake and market share gains. Reiterate BUY with unchanged PT of € 51.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29509.pdf
For additional information visit our website www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++

-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------

The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.

Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.

The most important financial data at a glance
  2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e
Sales1 154,75 113,48 87,02 83,33 105,20 116,05 182,00
EBITDA1,2 38,31 17,91 17,33 27,73 31,66 32,91 58,00
EBITDA-Margin3 24,76 15,78 19,92 33,28 30,10 28,36 31,87
EBIT1,4 38,31 9,07 5,38 19,05 22,93 23,65 48,00
EBIT-Margin5 24,76 7,99 6,18 22,86 21,80 20,38 26,37
Net Profit (Loss)1 26,66 1,72 7,89 11,40 16,57 13,72 31,00
Net-Margin6 17,23 1,52 9,07 13,68 15,75 11,82 17,03
Cashflow1,7 38,20 5,30 5,37 26,16 28,49 25,57 0,00
Earnings per share8 3,18 0,09 0,37 0,48 0,72 0,59 1,43
Dividend per share8 1,00 0,80 0,90 2,10 3,60 1,10 1,10
Quelle: boersengefluester.de and Company information
Explanation

1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de

Auditor: Ernst & Young

All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.

INVESTOR-INFORMATION
©boersengefluester.de
ZEAL Network
WKN ISIN Legal Type Marketcap IPO Recommendation Plus Code
ZEAL24 DE000ZEAL241 SE 1.039,79 Mio € 12.10.2005 Halten 9F5FHXJG+9R
* * *
PE 2025e PE 10Y-Ø BGFL-Ratio Shiller-PE PB PCF KUV
41,38 20,32 2,04 50,21 4,42 40,67 8,96
Dividends
Dividend '2022
in €
Dividend '2023
in €
Dividend '2024e
in €
Div.-Yield '2024e
in %
3,60 1,10 1,10 2,29%
Financial calendar
Annual General Meeting Q1-figures Q2-figures Q3-figures Annual press conference
21.05.2025 07.05.2025 06.08.2025 06.11.2024 26.03.2025
Performance
Distance 60-days-line Distance 200-days-line Performance YtD Performance 52 weeks IPO
Last Price (EoD)
-0,62%
48,00 €
ATH 59,47 €
+16,58% +30,95% +44,14% +54,84% +134,15%

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