Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE

Company Name:	ZEAL Network SE
ISIN:	DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 67
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

The odds remain compelling

Following a multiple compression over the last years (2026e EV/EBITDA c. 37% below 5-year historic median), ZEAL’s structural growth profile and earnings trajectory remain intact, creating an attractive entry point into the ongoing online penetration story.

The 2026 regulatory agenda looks pro incumbent and pro enforcement, which should be supportive for ZEAL. First, the evidence-based review of current regulation (GlüStV) by the gambling regulator (GGL) is likely to result in minor adjustments at most (such as technical clarifications), as the joint body of Germany’s 16 state lottery operators (DLTB) continues to portray the current framework as well calibrated.

Second, and the more important, regulatory cross read is positive enforcement momentum. In February, Baden-Württemberg approved moving forward with an amendment to the GlüStV explicitly aimed at strengthening enforcement and supervision. The focus is on tougher action against illegal online offers. Every incremental enforcement step, including IP blocking as a policy tool, increases the odds of demand shifting into regulated channels. As Germany’s leading online lottery broker with c. 44% market share, ZEAL looks set to be the primary beneficiary.

Beyond the regulatory tailwind, the core mid-term driver remains the shift of lottery demand into online channels. Online penetration in Germany can plausibly move beyond 50% mid-term (eNuW), up from 31% today, as the digital customer journey is simpler than offline. As the clear online leader, ZEAL should capture a disproportionate share of this migration and is seen to reach 50% market share mid-term. While ZEAL still invests c. 30% of sales into marketing, margins have meaningful upside once the market matures and growth spending normalises. With c. 60% of billings subscription driven, the revenue base is mostly recurring, supporting a step up in profitability when growth investments can be lowered.

At the same time, ZEAL’s Dream House Raffle is emerging as a meaningful proprietary growth driver with structurally attractive economics and visible scaling potential. With only 4 raffles in 2025, ZEAL is expected to generate sales of € 17m (8% of group, eNuW). We see a credible path to scaling the format up to € 50m by 2030 (c. 20% of current group revenues, eNuW). Importantly, the format should carry a structurally higher margin than the core lottery brokerage business, driven by a significantly higher take rate on ticket billings (c. 46% vs. c. 17% for group).

ZEAL’s execution has been consistently strong, with management converting customer growth into margin expansion and cash generation, providing confidence into future delivery. The company remains net cash positive, providing downside protection and ample flexibility for continued capital returns to shareholders.

BUY, PT € 67, based on DCF. - analyst change -
 

You can download the research here: zeal-network-se-2026-02-23-update-en-162a5
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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