Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
No Q4 peak jackpot, expect EBITDA guidance beat
Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered. Peak jackpots are the key driver of incremental user activity at ZEAL, which can be observed in higher number of monthly active users (MAUs). During Q3’25 (2x peak jackpot), the MAUs jumped 26% yoy to 1.69m (vs. 1.3m in Q3’24 with 0x peak jackpots). Now, with 0x peak jackpots in Q4’25e, we expect a sequential decline in user activity to 1.505m MAUs (implied average of 1.56m for FY’25e). Previously, we had expected a slightly higher activity rate of ZEAL’s customer base (eNuW old: 1.565m), which is why we lower our Q4 sales estimate to € 53m (eNuW old: € 55m) which nonetheless still implies a guidance reach at the top-end at € 215m (eNuW). Much less Q4 marketing spending now expected. With no peak jackpots in Q4, we also expect ZEAL to adjust Q4 marketing spending accordingly by 5m to € 15m (eNuW old: € 20m) which should yield a 33.5% Q4 EBITDA margin, in line with 9M of 33.3%. Against this backdrop, an EBITDA guidance beat seems likely now. With a Q4 EBITDA estimate of € 18m, we imply a FY’25e EBITDA of € 72m (eNuW old: € 68m), which is 6% above the upper guidance end. No more margin downside, only upside from jackpots. In the past, there was always a trade-off between profitability and growth, especially during peak jackpot phases. Now, with MAUs well above the 1.5m mark, ZEAL has reached critical mass and enough operating leverage, that the higher sales from the strong user activity overcompensate any additional marketing spending. Effectively, strong jackpot phases do not weigh on margins anymore, but actually increase profitability. This was already observed in the thus far unmachted Q4’24, where user activity skyrocketed and the EBITDA margin jumped to 40% (vs. c. 30% on average per quarter), despite a 275% yoy increase in marketing spending. Against this backdrop, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a slightly higher PT of € 67.00 (old € 66.00), based on DCF. You can download the research here: zeal-network-se-2025-12-16-update-en-e9683 For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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2246200 16.12.2025 CET/CEST
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | ||
| Sales1 | 113,48 | 87,02 | 83,33 | 105,20 | 116,05 | 188,20 | 210,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 17,91 | 17,33 | 27,73 | 31,66 | 32,91 | 61,86 | 66,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 15,78 | 19,92 | 33,28 | 30,10 | 28,36 | 32,87 | 31,43 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 9,07 | 5,38 | 19,05 | 22,93 | 23,65 | 53,66 | 65,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 7,99 | 6,18 | 22,86 | 21,80 | 20,38 | 28,51 | 30,95 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 1,72 | 7,89 | 11,40 | 16,57 | 13,72 | 59,44 | 43,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 1,52 | 9,07 | 13,68 | 15,75 | 11,82 | 31,58 | 20,48 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 5,30 | 5,37 | 26,16 | 28,49 | 25,57 | 75,11 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 0,09 | 0,37 | 0,48 | 0,72 | 0,59 | 2,70 | 1,98 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,80 | 0,90 | 2,10 | 3,60 | 1,10 | 2,40 | 1,40 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Ernst & Young
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| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
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| ZEAL Network | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| ZEAL24 | DE000ZEAL241 | SE | 1.049,40 Mio € | 12.10.2005 | Kaufen | 9F5FHXJG+9R |
| PE 2026e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 23,16 | 18,50 | 1,25 | 32,16 | 5,63 | 13,97 | 5,58 |
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Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024 in € |
Dividend '2025e in € |
Div.-Yield '2025e in % |
| 1,10 | 2,40 | 1,40 | 2,89% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 21.05.2025 | 07.05.2025 | 06.08.2025 | 05.11.2025 | 26.03.2025 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -1,31% | +4,09% | -3,20% | +9,01% | +136,10% |
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