Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Q1 preview: building on past success; chg. est & PT up Normalized lottery environment. Following the exceptionally strong Q4’24, Q1’25 came down to normalized levels. Spending for the Eurojackpot declined by 1% yoy (-25% qoq) to € 1.14bn, whereas the 6aus49 lottery spending declined by 5% yoy (-1% qoq) to € 871m. Sales expansion to be driven by higher user base and price increases. We expect Q1 sales to come in at € 50.5m (+40% yoy), driven by (1) higher lottery billings (eNuW: € 267m; +9% yoy) thanks to a mix of a higher lottery user base (eNuW: 1.525m MAUs; +14% yoy) but also due to a lower ABPU (eNuW: € 58.50, -5% yoy), (2) a higher billings margin (sales in % of billings) of 17% (eNuW; +3.6pp yoy) as a result of the price increase imposed in June ’24, (3) the new lottery product “Traumhausverlosung” with Q1 sales of € 4m (eNuW), and (4) sales from the Games business of € 3.4m in Q1 (eNuW; +56% yoy). Operating leverage to deliver stellar profitability. Q1 EBITDA looks set to rise disproportionately by 73% yoy to € 16.3m (32.5% margin) thanks to an ever increasing fix cost coverage. Especially marketing expense (eNuW: € 14.5m) should be substantially lower than in Q4’24 (€ 20m) thanks to the absence of peak jackpots. Nevertheless, this should have led to a user intake of 125k (eNuW; vs. 452k in Q4’24 with 7x peak jackpots), thanks to the strategic shift towards brand awareness marketing. Upbeat cash generation allows for high shareholder returns. During FY’24, ZEAL increased its cash position by € 57m to € 115m, of which € 75m came in from operating cashflows and € 71m from debt intake, which stood against a € 24m dividend, a € 25m share buyback and a € 41m squeeze-out payment for Lotto24. Mind you, the asset-light business model incurs no CAPEX. Consequently, excess cash can be returned to shareholders, which is why management proposed a € 2.40 DPS (€ 52m; 5.1% current yield) for FY’24 to be paid next month. All in all, ZEAL looks set to report another strong quarter, showing that past initiatives lead to significant sales and earnings growth. With our updated estimates for MAUs and billings margin in the lottery brokerage business, we are now positioned significantly above the guidance. Against this backdrop, a guidance hike as early as Q1 results seems likely, in our view. Therefore, we confirm (1) ZEAL’s position in the NuWays’ AlphaList and (2) our BUY recommendation with an increased PT of € 62.00 (old: € 61.00), based on DCF. You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32362.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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2125938 29.04.2025 CET/CEST
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025e | ||
| Sales1 | 113,48 | 87,02 | 83,33 | 105,20 | 116,05 | 188,20 | 210,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 17,91 | 17,33 | 27,73 | 31,66 | 32,91 | 61,86 | 66,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 15,78 | 19,92 | 33,28 | 30,10 | 28,36 | 32,87 | 31,43 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 9,07 | 5,38 | 19,05 | 22,93 | 23,65 | 53,66 | 65,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 7,99 | 6,18 | 22,86 | 21,80 | 20,38 | 28,51 | 30,95 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 1,72 | 7,89 | 11,40 | 16,57 | 13,72 | 59,44 | 43,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 1,52 | 9,07 | 13,68 | 15,75 | 11,82 | 31,58 | 20,48 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 5,30 | 5,37 | 26,16 | 28,49 | 25,57 | 75,11 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 0,09 | 0,37 | 0,48 | 0,72 | 0,59 | 2,70 | 1,98 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,80 | 0,90 | 2,10 | 3,60 | 1,10 | 2,40 | 1,40 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Ernst & Young
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| ZEAL Network | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| ZEAL24 | DE000ZEAL241 | SE | 1.055,90 Mio € | 12.10.2005 | Kaufen | 9F5FHXJG+9R |
| PE 2026e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 23,30 | 18,52 | 1,26 | 32,36 | 5,66 | 14,06 | 5,61 |
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Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024 in € |
Dividend '2025e in € |
Div.-Yield '2025e in % |
| 1,10 | 2,40 | 1,40 | 2,87% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 21.05.2025 | 07.05.2025 | 06.08.2025 | 05.11.2025 | 26.03.2025 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| +0,24% | +5,30% | -2,40% | +10,16% | +138,05% |
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