Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): Buy
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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Exceptionally strong current trading; raising ests & PT Topic: following 7x peak Eurojackpots in the last weeks, Germany was in a lottery fever with exceptionally high user activity and lottery spendings up 2-3x above average. For Germany's #1 online provider of lottery, this bodes for exceptionally high lottery billings and sales in this period, but more importantly, user intake at attractive prices. In detail: Q4 jackpot situation: out of the two main German lottery products, the Eurojackpot is the one to be excited about in Q4. The jackpot was hit last Friday, thus Q4 came with a new a record streak of 7x peak jackpots, which led to a new record of € 1.24bn in lottery spending on this product in Q4. This was a staggering 33% above the LTM average and already (with 3 weeks to go in Q4) exceeded Q4'23 by 33% yoy and Q2'24 by 17%. - see p. 2 Q4 billings & sales growth: the jackpot situation should have already pushed Q4 top-line to new peaks, as several sales drivers are kicking in at the same time: (1) the jackpot situation leads to an higher spending, as the inactive customers become active at these times which adds to the high user base on top of strong customer acquisitions of the past. All this should leads to elevated lottery billings in Q4, which we assume to arrive elevated by 34% yoy at € 281m (assuming average jackpots and user behaviour from now until end of Q4). Now even better, ZEAL's price optimization as of H2'24 should also expand the billings margin by 3.9pp yoy to 16.3% (eNuW), serving as additional and major lever on sales. Consequently, Q4 lottery sales should rise by a staggering 75% yoy to € 46m. - see p. 2 User intake at attractive prices: To take advanteage of the jackpot situation (i.e. when most players are more prone to switch from offline to online), we expect ZEAL to go full-throttle on marketing (eNuW: € 18m, +240% yoy). In turn, this should in turn drive new registrations up to 400k (eNuW; +334% yoy) at attractive prices (eNuW: CPL of € 35, -6% yoy; -16% qoq). As the retention rate stands at c. 25%, this should add 85k in MAUs, increasing the revenue base for lottery revenues and cross-selling potential. In sum, ZEAL should finish off 2024 slightly above its sales guidance (eNuW: € 170m), whereas we expect managment to continue balancing marketing expense and profitability, leading to an EBITDA within the guidance range (eNuW: € 45m). Against this backdrop, we reiterate our BUY recommendation, keep ZEAL in the NuWays AlphaList and increase our DCF-PT to € 60.00 (old: € 57.00) You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31505.pdf For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
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2046483 09.12.2024 CET/CEST
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
| Sales1 | 154,75 | 113,48 | 87,02 | 83,33 | 105,20 | 116,05 | 182,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 38,31 | 17,91 | 17,33 | 27,73 | 31,66 | 32,91 | 58,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 24,76 | 15,78 | 19,92 | 33,28 | 30,10 | 28,36 | 31,87 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 38,31 | 9,07 | 5,38 | 19,05 | 22,93 | 23,65 | 48,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 24,76 | 7,99 | 6,18 | 22,86 | 21,80 | 20,38 | 26,37 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 26,66 | 1,72 | 7,89 | 11,40 | 16,57 | 13,72 | 31,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 17,23 | 1,52 | 9,07 | 13,68 | 15,75 | 11,82 | 17,03 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 38,20 | 5,30 | 5,37 | 26,16 | 28,49 | 25,57 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 3,18 | 0,09 | 0,37 | 0,48 | 0,72 | 0,59 | 1,43 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 1,00 | 0,80 | 0,90 | 2,10 | 3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Ernst & Young
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
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| ZEAL Network | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| ZEAL24 | DE000ZEAL241 | SE | 1.039,79 Mio € | 12.10.2005 | Halten | 9F5FHXJG+9R |
| PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 41,38 | 20,32 | 2,04 | 50,21 | 4,42 | 40,67 | 8,96 |
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Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 | 2,29% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 21.05.2025 | 07.05.2025 | 06.08.2025 | 06.11.2024 | 26.03.2025 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| +16,58% | +30,95% | +44,14% | +54,84% | +134,15% |
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