Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 06.03.2024
Target price: 51.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q4 preview: tough comp for lottery, games still small
Topic: ZEAL should release final FY'23 figures on March 20th. Here's what we expect for Q4'23e:
Tough comp for lottery: Against a strong Q4'22 (peaking EuroJackpot), total German lottery spending (on & offline) has declined by 9% yoy in Q4'23 (+3% yoy for FY'23; Source: DLTB). For ZEAL it should also be hard to exceed its strong Q4'22, as we expect a slight yoy decline of 3% to € 208m in billings in Q4'23e. On a a FY'23e basis however, solid billings growth of 11% yoy to € 841m (guidance: € 800-830m) should be in the cards thanks to 1.15m MAU (eNuW; +7.5% yoy) and an ABPU of € 61.00 (eNuW; +3.2% yoy). With an average Lottery gross margin of 12.6% (eNuW), FY'23e sales from Lottery should grow accordingly by of 6% yoy to € 106m (Q4: € 26.8m, -9% yoy).
Next data point of Games roll-out: While the new segment 'Games' showed strong KPIs in its first quarter after introduction (Q3'23), we expect further improvements in Q4, as more games were added and lottery players should have been cross-sold. However, as regulatory approval takes more time than anticipated, we expect conservative sales of € 1.9m (vs. € 1.2m in Q3), based on an slightly increased pay-in for games of € 3.9m (vs. € 3.3m for Q3'23) and a constant pay-in to billings ratio.
Guidance well in reach: We expect ZEAL to exceed its lottery billings guidance of € 800-830m (eNuW: € 841m) while the sales (€ 110-120m; eNuW: € 115m) and EBITDA (€ 30-35m; eNuW: € 33.4m) guidance should be reached at mid-point.
Promising FY'24e outlook: While we expect Lottery sales to grow by 12% yoy to € 119m (driven by continuous marketing driven user intake), the Games business should also have first meaningful sales contribution of € 10m, implying total sales growth of 18% yoy. As ZEAL currently targets existing lottery players for its Games business, we model no marketing expenses for Games while € 42m should be spent on Lottery for brand awareness & customer acquisition. However, as user KPIs for Games look attractive (Q3'23 ARPU: € 7.67 at Lottery vs. € 22.02 at Games), additional € 3-8m of marketing expenses could be spent on Games in return for more user intake during FY'24e.
Against this backdrop, the recent share price weakness should be a buying opportunity, especially as Q1'24 saw extraordinary strong jackpots already, indicating a promising start into a strong growth year. Reiterate BUY with unchanged PT of € 51.00, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29071.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
Sales1 | 154,75 | 113,48 | 87,02 | 83,33 | 105,20 | 116,05 | 182,00 | |
EBITDA1,2 | 38,31 | 17,91 | 17,33 | 27,73 | 31,66 | 32,91 | 58,00 | |
EBITDA-Margin3 | 24,76 | 15,78 | 19,92 | 33,28 | 30,10 | 28,36 | 31,87 | |
EBIT1,4 | 38,31 | 9,07 | 5,38 | 19,05 | 22,93 | 23,65 | 48,00 | |
EBIT-Margin5 | 24,76 | 7,99 | 6,18 | 22,86 | 21,80 | 20,38 | 26,37 | |
Net Profit (Loss)1 | 26,66 | 1,72 | 7,89 | 11,40 | 16,57 | 13,72 | 31,00 | |
Net-Margin6 | 17,23 | 1,52 | 9,07 | 13,68 | 15,75 | 11,82 | 17,03 | |
Cashflow1,7 | 38,20 | 5,30 | 5,37 | 26,16 | 28,49 | 25,57 | 0,00 | |
Earnings per share8 | 3,18 | 0,09 | 0,37 | 0,48 | 0,72 | 0,59 | 1,43 | |
Dividend per share8 | 1,00 | 0,80 | 0,90 | 2,10 | 3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Ernst & Young
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
ZEAL Network | ||||||
WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
ZEAL24 | DE000ZEAL241 | SE | 1.039,79 Mio € | 12.10.2005 | Halten | 9F5FHXJG+9R |
PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
41,38 | 20,32 | 2,04 | 50,21 | 4,42 | 40,67 | 8,96 |
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
3,60 | 1,10 | 1,10 | 2,29% |
Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
21.05.2025 | 07.05.2025 | 06.08.2025 | 06.11.2024 | 26.03.2025 |
Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
+16,58% | +30,95% | +44,14% | +54,84% | +134,15% |
Founded in 2013 by Gereon Kruse, the financial portal boersengefluester.de is all about German shares - with a clear focus on second-line stocks. In addition to traditional editorial articles, the site stands out in particular thanks to a large number of self-developed analysis tools. All tools are based on a completely self-maintained database for more than 650 shares. As a result, boersengefluester.de produces Germany's largest profit and dividend forecast.