Original-Research: BASF SE (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Buy

Classification of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH to BASF SE

European Chemicals: The 2027 Cycle

A 76-page knowledge report and primer on the German chemicals sector

FRANKFURT AM MAIN, 6 October 2026 | Parmantier & Cie. Research announces “European Chemicals: The 2027 Cycle”, a final knowledge report and primer on the German chemicals sector, comprising 76 content pages. The report provides an analytical framework for institutional investors assessing German chemical industrials within the wider European production and competitive landscape. The report also sets out individual recommendations and 12-month price targets for each covered company.

The central thesis is that the 2027 cycle may be shaped less by a simple industrial rebound than by restructuring, operating leverage, capacity rationalisation, portfolio separation, deleveraging and selective consolidation. The analysis distinguishes temporary supply-driven earnings support from a durable improvement in volumes, margins and cash generation.

Individual recommendations and 12-month price targets

Recommendations reproduced as published in the final report dated 6 October 2026. Price targets are in EUR.

Source: final Parmantier & Cie. report, cover recommendation table. The report contains no Sell recommendation. “Buy (spec.)” retains the report’s speculative designation. Reference prices: XETRA closes of 1 October 2026.

German chemical industrials bring together cyclical earnings exposure and structural questions about European production networks, energy costs, global competition and capital allocation. Assessing that interaction requires more than extrapolating a strong quarter or applying a uniform valuation multiple to businesses with different competitive positions and financing needs.

The report examines five connected themes:

• Energy and production competitiveness: relative energy and feedstock costs, the timing of input-cost changes and the conditions under which a temporary spread benefit could translate into sustainable operating improvement.

• Chinese capacity and export pressure: the distinction between structural cost advantages, excess capacity and changing export intensity, alongside differences in product qualification, customer approvals and exposure to import competition.

• Utilisation, operating leverage and self-help: how throughput and fixed-cost absorption interact with restructuring programmes, working capital, capital expenditure and free cash flow. The framework tests whether reported earnings improvement is supported by recurring cash generation.

• Portfolio separation and balance-sheet repair: the relationship between asset sales, spin-offs, IPOs, stranded costs and deleveraging. BASF’s Agricultural Solutions separation and IPO optionality provide a concrete context for examining value realisation without assuming a completed listing or predetermined proceeds.

• Selective consolidation and valuation dispersion: how acquisition premiums, financing, integration costs and regulatory constraints affect value creation, and why apparently low multiples may indicate either recovery potential or a value trap.

The BASF-Evonik situation is examined as one important catalyst within this broader framework. The report records a confirmed non-binding approach and exploratory contacts, not an agreed or signed transaction; terms, financing structure, synergies, timetable and completion remain uncertain. Media reporting and hypothetical transaction routes are not presented as company-confirmed facts.

The report is a primer and knowledge resource, not a simple sector-wide bullish call or a promise of recovery. Its independent scenario analysis explicitly separates company disclosures and documented corporate actions from media reports, unconfirmed M&A scenarios and Parmantier & Cie. assumptions, while setting out disconfirming evidence and risks including adverse energy costs, renewed export pressure, weak cash conversion, delayed separations and excessive acquisition leverage.

Institutional investors, portfolio managers, analysts, corporate strategists and M&A professionals seeking the full report or a discussion of its sector framework are invited to contact research@parmantiercie.com. Enquiries may also address deep-dive stock and sector research and short-term idea generation. Access and distribution are subject to applicable investor-classification, jurisdictional, compliance and regulatory requirements.

Source: Parmantier & Cie. Research, European Chemicals: The 2027 Cycle, 6 October 2026. Prepared exclusively from the final report; information cut-offs and evidence labels are set out there. Page count: 76 content pages, excluding the cover and one blank page; the supplied PDF contains 78 pages.

This press release is a marketing summary of the full research report and does not provide a complete representation of its investment conclusions, risks, valuation methodologies, disclosures or regulatory information. It is not personalised investment advice, an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Analytical assumptions, forecasts and transaction scenarios are not confirmed outcomes or guarantees. Readers should consult the full report, including its legal notice and conflicts disclosures. Access and distribution are subject to applicable investor-classification, jurisdictional, compliance and regulatory requirements. Parmantier & Cie. Research and/or its affiliates and employees may hold positions in the securities discussed; the full report contains the conflicts disclosures.