Deutsche Rohstoff AG
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76
WKN: A0XYG7
18 September 2024 04:31PM

Original-Research: Deutsche Rohstoff AG (von First Berlin Equity Research GmbH): Buy

Deutsche Rohstoff AG · ISIN: DE000A0XYG76 · EQS - Analysts
Country: Germany · Primary market: Germany · EQS NID: 20817

Original-Research: Deutsche Rohstoff AG - from First Berlin Equity Research GmbH

18.09.2024 / 16:30 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group AG.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.


Classification of First Berlin Equity Research GmbH to Deutsche Rohstoff AG

Company Name: Deutsche Rohstoff AG
ISIN: DE000A0XYG76
 
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 18.09.2024
Target price: €48
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Simon Scholes

First Berlin Equity Research has published a research update on Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76). Analyst Simon Scholes reiterated his BUY rating and decreased the price target from EUR 51.00 to EUR 48.00.

Abstract:
Oil accounted for 58% of DRAG's volume in H1/24 and 87% of its revenue. Since our most recent note of 2 August the average levels of the Q4/24 and FY/25 oil futures strips have fallen by 10% and 9% respectively. DRAG has been guiding towards investment of €100m-€110m for 2025 (2024: €145-€165m) since April. Our recent discussions with management indicate that the €100m-€110m investment plan for 2025 remains in place at the current oil price. DRAG have stated that this money will be invested mainly in 11 Niobrara wells in Wyoming. We continue to model annual investment of €100m-€110m for the two years after 2025, but now forecast volume increases of 3.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027 (previously: -0.9% and +0.9%) as the rate of decline in existing production eases. On the basis of current commodity futures strips, a very strong execution record (production has more than doubled since 2021), and an ample reserves base, we expect DRAG to continue to show stable to growing profits. After reworking our forecasts, we see EBITDA averaging €150m during the three-year period 2025-2027, corresponding to an EV/EBITDA ratio of only 1.9x. By comparison, EBITDA averaged €132m during 2021-24. We now see fair value for the DRAG share at €48 (previously: €51). We maintain our Buy recommendation.

First Berlin Equity Research hat ein Research Update zu Deutsche Rohstoff AG (ISIN: DE000A0XYG76) veröffentlicht. Analyst Simon Scholes bestätigt seine BUY-Empfehlung und senkt das Kursziel von EUR 51,00 auf EUR 48,00.

Zusammenfassung:
Auf Öl entfielen 58 % des Volumens der DRAG in H1/24 und 87% ihres Umsatzes. Seit unserer letzten Studie vom 2. August sind die Durchschnittswerte der Öl-Futures für Q4/24 und FY/25 um 10 % bzw. 9 % gefallen. Seit April hat die DRAG für 2025 Investitionen in Höhe von €100 Mio. bis €110 Mio. in Aussicht gestellt (2024: €145 Mio. bis €165 Mio.). Aus unseren jüngsten Gesprächen mit der Geschäftsleitung geht hervor, dass der Investitionsplan für 2025 in Höhe von €100 Mio. bis €110 Mio. bei dem derzeitigen Ölpreis weiterhin Bestand hat. DRAG hat erklärt, dass dieses Geld hauptsächlich in 11 Niobrara-Bohrungen in Wyoming investiert werden soll. Wir gehen weiterhin von jährlichen Investitionen in Höhe von €100 Mio. bis €110 Mio. für die beiden Jahre nach 2025 aus, prognostizieren aber nun einen Anstieg der Fördermengen um 3,6 % im Jahr 2026 und 2,9 % im Jahr 2027 (zuvor: -0,9 % und +0,9 %), da sich der Rückgang der bestehenden Produktion verlangsamt. Auf der Grundlage der aktuellen Öl-Futures, einer sehr guten Ausführungsbilanz (die Produktion hat sich seit 2021 mehr als verdoppelt) und einer reichhaltigen Reservenbasis erwarten wir, dass die DRAG weiterhin stabile bis wachsende Gewinne erzielen wird. Nach Überarbeitung unserer Prognosen sehen wir für den Dreijahreszeitraum 2025-2027 ein durchschnittliches EBITDA von €150 Mio., was einem EV/EBITDA-Verhältnis von nur 1,9x entspricht. Im Vergleich dazu lag das EBITDA im Zeitraum 2021-24 bei durchschnittlich €132 Mio. Den fairen Wert der DRAG-Aktie sehen wir nun bei €48 (bisher: €51). Wir behalten unsere Kaufempfehlung bei.

Bezüglich der Pflichtangaben gem. §85 Abs. 1 S. 1 WpHG und des Haftungsausschlusses siehe die vollständige Analyse.

 

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30817.pdf

Contact for questions:
First Berlin Equity Research GmbH
Herr Gaurav Tiwari
Tel.: +49 (0)30 809 39 686
web: www.firstberlin.com
E-Mail: g.tiwari@firstberlin.com


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1990897  18.09.2024 CET/CEST

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Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.

The most important financial data at a glance
  2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e
Sales1 109,05 41,20 38,68 73,32 165,44 196,66 225,00
EBITDA1,2 97,93 22,72 23,90 66,06 139,09 158,26 170,00
EBITDA-Margin3 89,80 55,15 61,79 90,10 84,07 80,47 75,56
EBIT1,4 32,70 5,63 -16,10 32,59 91,43 95,00 117,00
EBIT-Margin5 29,99 13,67 -41,62 44,45 55,27 48,31 52,00
Net Profit (Loss)1 17,95 0,19 -16,10 26,36 66,19 67,48 55,00
Net-Margin6 16,46 0,46 -41,62 35,95 40,01 34,31 24,44
Cashflow1,7 68,67 34,93 13,99 51,82 142,73 139,26 0,00
Earnings per share8 3,54 0,04 -3,17 5,00 12,15 13,02 9,85
Dividend per share8 0,70 0,10 0,00 0,60 1,30 1,75 1,75
Quelle: boersengefluester.de and Company information
Explanation

1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de

Auditor: Falk

All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.

INVESTOR-INFORMATION
©boersengefluester.de
Deutsche Rohstoff
WKN ISIN Legal Type Marketcap IPO Recommendation Plus Code
A0XYG7 DE000A0XYG76 AG 159,60 Mio € 27.05.2010 Kaufen 8FXCFFPF+CC
* * *
PE 2025e PE 10Y-Ø BGFL-Ratio Shiller-PE PB PCF KUV
4,14 4,84 0,86 7,11 0,83 1,15 0,81
Dividends
Dividend '2022
in €
Dividend '2023
in €
Dividend '2024e
in €
Div.-Yield '2024e
in %
1,30 1,75 1,75 5,49%
Financial calendar
Annual General Meeting Q1-figures Q2-figures Q3-figures Annual press conference
18.06.2024 13.05.2024 15.08.2024 04.11.2024 23.04.2024
Performance
Distance 60-days-line Distance 200-days-line Performance YtD Performance 52 weeks IPO
Last Price (EoD)
-1,54%
31,90 €
ATH 45,10 €
-6,20% -13,56% -1,69% -3,19% +219,00%

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