Original-Research: DEMIRE AG (von NuWays AG): HOLD
Original-Research: DEMIRE AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu DEMIRE AG
Unternehmen: DEMIRE AG
ISIN: DE000A0XFSF0
Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 23.01.2024
Kursziel: 1.20
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Annual portfolio revaluation in line with expectations
Yesterday, DEMIRE published an ad-hoc following a draft valuation from Savills. The external surveyor is currently performing the annual valuation of DEMIRE’s investment properties as of 31 December ’23. Based on the draft, the company currently expects that the fair value of the investment properties will decline by 12-14% on a like-for-like basis, translating into an absolute devaluation in the range of € 127-154m. This compares to our estimate of a € 135m like-for-like devaluation.
In light of the ongoing general market headwinds, especially in the office market (59% of DEMIRE's portfolio), this does not come as a surprise and should have been expected by the market. Notably, this does not include any transaction-related devaluations, e.g. properties sold below book value. As of 9M ’23 those stood at € -12.9m (eNuW FY '24: € -30m).
Despite the significant yoy decline in value, we do not expect that the valuation-trough has been reached yet, as we conservatively estimate another slight devaluation of 5% in FY ‘24e. Although the office investment market has shown a sequential improvement in Q4 (+12% volume qoq), this happened on very low levels (c. 25% below the 10y average). In combination with a struggling general economy, we hence expect headwinds to remain, especially in B-locations, throughout 2024, although the pressure should be easing.
Importantly, the company’s operations and hence the FY guidance are not effected, as management continues to expect rental income of € 78-80m (eNuW: € 79.4m) and FFO of € 35-37m (eNuW: 35.7m).
That said, managements main focus remains on the refinancing of the company’s € 499 corporate bond, which is going to mature in October. As outlined in our previous update, a solution looks set to be announced in the course of Q1 as talks with bondholders are progressing.
Although uncertainty remains high, the cash inflow from the disposal as well as an easing interest rate environment following declining swap rates, the tide has turned a bit towards DEMIRE’s favor again, in our view.
Still, as visibility continues to be low regarding the outcome of the refinancing process, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged PT of € 1.20 based on NAV and DDM.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28723.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
Sales1 | 73,71 | 81,80 | 87,51 | 82,33 | 81,08 | 78,52 | 65,00 | |
EBITDA1,2 | 129,18 | 155,97 | 34,88 | 105,92 | -62,65 | -168,05 | 0,00 | |
EBITDA-Margin3 | 175,25 | 190,67 | 39,86 | 128,65 | -77,27 | -214,02 | 0,00 | |
EBIT1,4 | 127,07 | 155,17 | 27,65 | 101,87 | -72,93 | -187,95 | 0,00 | |
EBIT-Margin5 | 172,39 | 189,69 | 31,60 | 123,73 | -89,95 | -239,37 | 0,00 | |
Net Profit (Loss)1 | 69,05 | 79,74 | 9,17 | 61,59 | -71,50 | -151,97 | 0,00 | |
Net-Margin6 | 93,68 | 97,48 | 10,48 | 74,81 | -88,19 | -193,54 | 0,00 | |
Cashflow1,7 | 38,86 | 45,84 | -24,10 | 65,22 | 48,00 | 40,71 | 0,00 | |
Earnings per share8 | 0,85 | 0,70 | 0,08 | 0,55 | -0,62 | -1,39 | -0,37 | |
Dividend per share8 | 0,00 | 0,54 | 0,62 | 0,31 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: PricewaterhouseCoopers
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
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DEMIRE | ||||||
WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
A0XFSF | DE000A0XFSF0 | AG | 74,37 Mio € | 26.07.2006 | Halten | 9F2C2M23+JC |
PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
0,00 | 8,91 | 0,00 | 6,16 | 0,24 | 1,83 | 0,95 |
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
21.11.2024 | 30.09.2024 | 30.09.2024 | 07.11.2024 | 30.09.2024 |
Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
-19,95% | -22,65% | -34,91% | -37,84% | +0,00% |
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