Original-Research: Verbio SE (von NuWays AG): BUY
|
Original-Research: Verbio SE - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Verbio SE
Q1 preview: Strong start supports FY26/27 outlook VERBIO is set for a strong start to FY26/27, with Q1'26/27 EBITDA expected to quadruple yoy to € 61.5m (eNuW), supported by stronger European biodiesel and ethanol spreads, higher utilisation as Nevada continues to ramp up, and significantly higher German GHG quota prices. Nevertheless, EBITDA is seen c. 11% below Q4’25/26, adjusted for the € 19m reversal of GHG quota inventory impairments. This mainly reflects normalising European ethanol spreads (eNuW: c. € 230/t vs c. € 380/t in Q4). While GHG quota market prices have continued to rise qoq, we expect a higher share of deliveries under fixed-price bilateral contracts rather than spot sales, keeping realised prices broadly stable qoq. Biodiesel EBITDA is expected to increase 60% yoy to € 36.1m, with broadly equal contributions to growth from higher market spreads (+70% yoy to € 184/t, eNuW) and higher GHG quota prices (eNuW: € 430/t CO₂, up c. € 280/t yoy). Biodiesel spreads have recovered sharply after approaching break-even in April–June, when vegetable oil prices initially reacted more strongly than biodiesel prices to expectations of higher renewable fuel demand following regulatory changes in Europe and the US (Germany’s RED III implementation and higher US renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026–27 under the RFS). Market spreads are expected to improve further sequentially in Q2 to above € 250/t (eNuW), although the timing of feedstock purchases and biodiesel sales may affect realised margins. Bioethanol/Biomethane EBITDA is seen improving by c. € 35m yoy to € 25.8m, primarily driven by higher GHG quota prices (c. € 30m contribution to yoy growth, eNuW), alongside slightly stronger market spreads and increasing biomethane volumes in Nevada. Against Q4, EBITDA is expected to decline c. 28%, excluding the inventory impairment reversal, mainly reflecting the aforementioned normalisation of European ethanol spreads. Other activities and consolidation are expected to contribute € -0.4m to group EBITDA. Net income is expected to recover to € 25.0m (eNuW, vs € -4m in Q1’25/26), assuming an effective tax rate of c. 43%, elevated by US losses for which no tax benefit is recognised. Improving US profitability should gradually lower the group’s effective tax rate over the course of FY26/27. The anticipated strong start to the year underpins our FY26/27 estimates, with upside potential from higher-than-assumed GHG quota prices or a prolonged period of elevated biodiesel spreads. Beyond the current year, the recent CMD reinforced our investment case, highlighting illustrative mid-cycle EBITDA of c. € 300m, progress in renewable chemicals and additional upside from US tax incentives. Lower capex and the planned monetisation of accumulated GHG quotas (eNuW: € 220m in cash proceeds) should further support cash generation. We reiterate BUY and our € 41 price target, based on the average FY27/28-FY28/29 FCF yield. -Q1 estimates table on next page- You can download the research here: verbio-se-2026-10-21-previewreview-en-337db For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research Contact for questions: NuWays AG - Equity Research Web: www.nuways-ag.com Email: research@nuways-ag.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany ++++++++++ Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte. Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse. ++++++++++
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements, Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases. |
||||||||||||||||||
2419212 21.10.2026 CET/CEST
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | ||
| Sales1 | 1.026,04 | 1.812,48 | 1.968,28 | 1.658,03 | 1.579,83 | 1.872,67 | 2.000,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 166,32 | 503,33 | 240,32 | 121,62 | 14,24 | 193,90 | 235,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 16,21 | 27,77 | 12,21 | 7,34 | 0,90 | 10,35 | 11,75 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 136,63 | 462,02 | 198,75 | 69,59 | -118,18 | 128,18 | 165,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 13,32 | 25,49 | 10,10 | 4,20 | -7,48 | 6,85 | 8,25 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 93,55 | 315,83 | 132,16 | 20,15 | -137,95 | 63,92 | 87,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 9,12 | 17,43 | 6,71 | 1,22 | -8,73 | 3,41 | 4,35 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 117,18 | 325,03 | 26,09 | 116,78 | 13,89 | 164,56 | 185,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 1,47 | 4,97 | 2,08 | 0,31 | -2,16 | 1,00 | 1,36 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,20 | 0,20 | 0,20 | 0,20 | 0,00 | 0,20 | 0,20 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: KPMG
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| Verbio | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| A0JL9W | DE000A0JL9W6 | SE | 1.822,96 Mio € | 16.10.2006 | Kaufen | 9F3JJ4GP+W9 |
| PE 2027e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 18,49 | 19,73 | 0,94 | 27,70 | 2,27 | 11,08 | 0,97 |
|
Dividend '2024 in € |
Dividend '2025 in € |
Dividend '2026e in € |
Div.-Yield '2026e in % |
| 0,00 | 0,20 | 0,20 | 0,70% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 04.12.2026 | 12.11.2026 | 11.02.2027 | 13.05.2027 | 24.09.2026 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -3,85% | -10,09% | +34,34% | +88,86% | +96,41% |
Founded in 2013 by Gereon Kruse, the financial portal boersengefluester.de is all about German shares - with a clear focus on second-line stocks. In addition to traditional editorial articles, the site stands out in particular thanks to a large number of self-developed analysis tools. All tools are based on a completely self-maintained database for more than 650 shares. As a result, boersengefluester.de produces Germany's largest profit and dividend forecast.
Contact
