Original-Research: 2G Energy AG (von Parmantier & Cie. GmbH): Sell

Classification of Parmantier & Cie. GmbH to 2G Energy AG

2G Energy AG: 2026 Guidance Now Hinges Almost Entirely on the Second Half. PARMANTIER & CIE. Research Reiterates Sell

Half-year report shows a 0.6% EBIT margin, operating cash flow financed by customer advances, and an order backlog of over EUR 600 million with no delivery-year breakdown. SEC filings confirm Energy Vault paid a USD 17.0 million reservation fee, not a purchase-price deposit. Price target unchanged at EUR 39.00.

Frankfurt am Main, October 15, 2026. 2G Energy AG (ISIN DE000A0HL8N9) today published its 2026 half-year report. PARMANTIER & CIE. Research has reviewed the report together with the filings Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and in its research update dated October 15, 2026 reiterates its Sell recommendation. The EUR 39.00 price target is the valuation conclusion of our research model; it stands roughly 29% below the Xetra closing price of October 14, 2026 of EUR 54.85.

Key takeaways

• First-half revenue of EUR 136.0 million (prior year: EUR 169.9 million), EBIT of EUR 0.8 million (prior year: EUR 5.7 million), EBIT margin of 0.6%.
• To meet the confirmed guidance (revenue of EUR 440-490 million, EBIT margin of 9.5-10.5%), we calculate that the second half must deliver EUR 304-354 million of revenue and roughly 98% of full-year EBIT.
• The EUR 39.5 million operating cash flow rests on a EUR 123.2 million increase in received customer advances - customer pre-financing, not freely available liquidity.
• The order backlog of more than EUR 600 million is neither broken down by delivery year nor reconciled.
• For Energy Vault, SEC filings document a USD 17.0 million reservation fee. The mid-double-digit-million advance payment reported by 2G is not independently documented there.

1. First half: revenue down about 20%, EBIT near zero

Group revenue fell roughly 20% to EUR 136.0 million, and new-plant revenue fell 36.4% to EUR 52.6 million. EBIT dropped to EUR 0.8 million. Management cites one-off IT-project costs, higher depreciation and an early build-up of headcount among the reasons. The report was published later than usual because of the transition to a new ERP system.

2. Guidance requires an unprecedented second half

In the foreword, management states it expects a strong second half, “so that we should reach the revenue and earnings guidance.” By our calculation, the guidance requires EUR 304-354 million of second-half revenue - 2.2 to 2.6 times first-half revenue. The implied second-half EBIT margin would be 12.9-14.9%, up from 0.6% in H1 and 6.6% for full-year 2025. 2G recognizes revenue from its first data-center order only as individual plants arrive in the U.S.; deliveries begin in Q4. Any delay in production, shipping or acceptance pushes that revenue directly into 2027.

3. Advances finance the ramp-up; they are not revenue

The EUR 123.2 million is the change in received advances during the first half, not the balance and not recognizable revenue. At June 30, 2026 the balance sheet shows EUR 162.8 million of received advances on the liability side; a further EUR 41.4 million is netted against inventories. Gross, that is roughly EUR 204 million (our calculation), including advances under full-maintenance contracts. The cash flowed into higher raw materials and supplies (plus EUR 36.5 million) and work in progress (plus EUR 48.2 million); advances paid to suppliers rose EUR 28.4 million. The EUR 29.3 million cash position equals roughly 18% of the advances recorded as liabilities. Management describes a “strong balance sheet”; the equity ratio fell from 51.0% to 38.3%.

4. An order backlog above EUR 600 million: size without maturity

2G reports an order backlog of roughly EUR 200 million at the start of the year and over EUR 600 million at June 30, 2026. A simple roll-forward using EUR 479.4 million of new orders and EUR 136.0 million of revenue yields about EUR 543 million (our calculation). The gap may have definitional reasons; the report does not explain it. What matters is which part of the backlog is delivered and recognized as revenue and earnings in 2026, 2027 or 2028. That figure is not disclosed.

5. Energy Vault: reservation documented, advance payment reported

According to Energy Vault's quarterly report (Form 10-Q), the company entered into a production-slot reservation agreement with 2G Energy Inc. in May 2026 and had paid a total of USD 17.0 million in reservation fees by July. The agreement did not obligate either side to sign a purchase contract; the fee is credited only if the contract is executed by the applicable deadline. On September 23, 2026, 2G announced a 275 MW order and, on September 29, stated the customer had made a mid-double-digit-million advance payment to replace the reservation. On August 14, 2026, an Energy Vault subsidiary entered into a secured credit facility of approximately USD 137.5 million to finance power-generation equipment. The supplier is redacted in the filed agreement; a draw of up to USD 38.4 million is scheduled for August 2026, with maturity on January 2, 2028. Whether this facility finances the 2G order is not confirmed. If it did, the advance payment would in our view be largely debt-financed. We have corrected our earlier characterization of a parallel order placed with Rolls-Royce MTU: Energy Vault's September 10, 2026 announcement of 275 MW on Rolls-Royce MTU technology may refer to the same capacity.

Investment view

Demand for decentralized power generation is real. As long as the second half must carry almost the entire annual result and the maturity of the order backlog is not disclosed, we view the risk/reward as negative. We reiterate our Sell recommendation with a EUR 39.00 price target, the valuation conclusion of our model.

What investors should now demand

First, a maturity analysis of the order backlog by delivery year (2026, 2027, 2028) reconciled to the opening balance. Second, a delivery schedule for the data-center orders with expected acceptance and recognition dates. Third, a reconciliation of received advances by new-plant versus maintenance contracts, by major order, and by cash versus bank guarantee. Fourth, transparent confirmation of the major customer contracts: counterparty, payment milestones, cancellation terms, and any guarantees or advance-payment bonds issued by 2G after June 30, 2026.

Important notice: This publication summarizes the independent research update by Parmantier & Cie. GmbH dated October 15, 2026 on 2G Energy AG and constitutes an investment recommendation within the meaning of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (Market Abuse Regulation). It is not investment advice and not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. The study was prepared independently and is neither commissioned nor compensated by the issuer. The recommendation and price target are based on Parmantier & Cie. Research's valuation model and assumptions and may change. Rating system: Buy above +15%, Hold -15% to +15%, Sell below -15% expected share-price performance over a twelve-month horizon. Disclosures on conflicts of interest, positions, recommendation history and methodology are included in the full study.