Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to USU Software AG
Company Name: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 07.03.2024
Target price: 30.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Q4 preview: Sequential improvements following license recovery
Topic: USU Software is going to release its 2023 annual report on March 28th, which is seen to show further sequential improvements during Q4, partly driven by a recovery of the license sales as well as continuously growing SaaS sales.
Q4 sales are seen coming in at € 34.9m, implying a muted 4.0% yoy but showing further sequential improvements with 6.3% qoq. This should be driven among others by a recovery of the license revenues, which we expect to come in at € 3.1m thus accounting for almost half of the FY license sales (eNuW: € 6.5m) but still 30% down yoy. Mind you, that license revenues deteriorated in the first 9M of ’23 following prolonged sales cycles. Besides this, SaaS sales look set to show further strong growth of 20% yoy to € 4.6m. Overall, FY ’23 sales are seen at € 133m, hence meeting the lower end of the company’s guidance (€ 132-139m).
While growth remains muted, Q4 adj. EBITDA is expected at € 4.3m, indicating an improved margin of 12.4% vs Q3 (+3.9pp qoq). Again, the main driver behind this is seen to be the sequential increase in license sales, which usually show higher initial margins compared to subscription-based SaaS revenues. Yet, FY adj. EBITDA is anticipated to amount to € 13.1m, thus reaching the lower end of the guidance (€ 13-15m) but also implying a margin decline by 3.4pp to 9.9%.
2024 another transition year. While sequential improvements should continue throughout 2024e, we still expect profitability to be slightly below the levels of ’21 & ’22 with an adj. EBITDA margin of 12.5%. This is mainly due to the ongoing SaaS transformation, where management aims for a >75% share of new customer business by FY ’26 and hence a consequent decline in license sales. While this will have an adverse short-term effect on profitability, margins are seen to strongly expand in mid-term (eNuW: 17.1% by FY ‘26e), as the annual subscription payments of the SaaS contracts should equal perpetual license sales including maintenance after c. 3 years.
Although another transition year is likely laying ahead, current valuation appears undemanding at 13x EV/EBIT ‘24e (vs historic avg. of 20x). Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of € 30 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29087.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
Sales1 | 90,49 | 95,63 | 107,33 | 111,90 | 126,52 | 132,08 | 145,00 | |
EBITDA1,2 | 5,51 | 9,92 | 13,38 | 14,39 | 16,84 | 12,43 | 14,00 | |
EBITDA-Margin3 | 6,09 | 10,37 | 12,47 | 12,86 | 13,31 | 9,41 | 9,66 | |
EBIT1,4 | 2,71 | 4,05 | 7,02 | 9,67 | 11,80 | 7,62 | 9,80 | |
EBIT-Margin5 | 3,00 | 4,24 | 6,54 | 8,64 | 9,33 | 5,77 | 6,76 | |
Net Profit (Loss)1 | 0,96 | 5,27 | 5,48 | 6,76 | 7,58 | 5,28 | 7,00 | |
Net-Margin6 | 1,06 | 5,51 | 5,11 | 6,04 | 5,99 | 4,00 | 4,83 | |
Cashflow1,7 | 2,00 | 9,52 | 17,74 | 13,35 | 10,37 | 7,88 | 0,00 | |
Earnings per share8 | 0,09 | 0,50 | 0,52 | 0,64 | 0,72 | 0,50 | 0,69 | |
Dividend per share8 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,50 | 0,55 | 1,70 | 0,55 |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: RSM Ebner Stolz
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
USU Software | ||||||
WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
A0BVU2 | DE000A0BVU28 | AG | 226,26 Mio € | 21.03.2000 | Halten | 8FWFV4MG+XH |
PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
23,89 | 31,11 | 0,77 | 39,67 | 5,63 | 28,70 | 1,71 |
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
0,55 | 1,70 | 0,55 | 2,56% |
Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
08.08.2024 | 23.05.2024 | 29.08.2024 | 21.11.2024 | 28.03.2024 |
Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
-2,20% | +13,25% | +28,36% | +26,84% | +0,00% |
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