Original-Research: USU Software AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
Original-Research: USU Software AG - von NuWays AG
Einstufung von NuWays AG zu USU Software AG
Unternehmen: USU Software AG
ISIN: DE000A0BVU28
Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review
Empfehlung: BUY
seit: 23.11.2023
Kursziel: € 30,00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Final Q3 in line with est. amid sequential improvements; chg.
Yesterday, USU released a solid set of Q3 results, showing sequential improvements compared to the second quarter despite an ongoing underperformance of license revenues.
Q3 sales increased 4.2% qoq to € 32.9 (eNuW: € 33.3m), implying a muted 1% yoy growth against a tough comparable base. Main drivers were the continuously strong growth in SaaS sales of 15.1% yoy to € 4.3m (eNuW: € 4.6m) as well as the consulting business, which grew 12% yoy to € 20.6m (eNuW: € 20.2m) thanks to the continuing strong demand for digitization services. However, this could not fully compensate for the again weak license sales, which declined 67% yoy to € 1.3m (eNuW: € 1.4m), due to prolonged sales cycles.
On this basis as well as due to continuously increased R&D expenses in connection with the SaaS platform and AI projects, Q3 EBITDA steeply declined by 43% yoy to € 2.5m (eNuW: € 2.9m). Notably, USU introduced an employee stock option program in Q3 following the 2022 share buyback. Although not cash relevant, this marks a specific extraordinary expense under IFRS, which is why management decided to henceforth report an adjusted EBITDA figure. For Q3, adjusted EBITDA amounted to € 2.8m. Going forward, this will also include the newly introduced share program for executives, which is fed by Udo Strehl's personal stock portfolio. As a result, both the company’s FY as well as the mid-term guidance now refer to adjusted EBITDA.
Speaking of which, management confirmed its FY outlook of € 132-139m sales (eNuW: € 133m) and now adjusted EBITDA of € 13-15m (eNuW: € 13.1m). While this looks well achievable on the top-line (+1.6% yoy implied Q4 growth at low end), license sales (eNuW: -50% yoy to € 2.2m) need to pick up the pace in Q4 in order to reach to bottom-line target (12.4% implied Q4 margin at low end).
Overall, the case remains fully intact, in our view. Mind you, that a temporary decline in profitability was always in the cards given the lower initial margin of SaaS contracts compared to license sales (full payment at closing). However, as the annual SaaS payments are seen to equal the one-time license costs (+maintenance) after c. 3 years and SaaS sales showing strong growth (25% CAGR ’21‘ 25e), margins are seen strongly expand from 2025e onwards, while 2024e is seen to be another transition year.
BUY, unchanged PT of € 30.00 based on DCF.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28377.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG
Mittelweg 16-17
20148 Hamburg
Germany
info@nuways-ag.com
www.nuways-ag.com
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
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Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
| Sales1 | 90,49 | 95,63 | 107,33 | 111,90 | 126,52 | 132,08 | 145,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 5,51 | 9,92 | 13,38 | 14,39 | 16,84 | 12,43 | 14,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 6,09 | 10,37 | 12,47 | 12,86 | 13,31 | 9,41 | 9,66 | |
| EBIT1,4 | 2,71 | 4,05 | 7,02 | 9,67 | 11,80 | 7,62 | 9,80 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | 3,00 | 4,24 | 6,54 | 8,64 | 9,33 | 5,77 | 6,76 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | 0,96 | 5,27 | 5,48 | 6,76 | 7,58 | 5,28 | 7,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | 1,06 | 5,51 | 5,11 | 6,04 | 5,99 | 4,00 | 4,83 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | 2,00 | 9,52 | 17,74 | 13,35 | 10,37 | 7,88 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | 0,09 | 0,50 | 0,52 | 0,64 | 0,72 | 0,50 | 0,69 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,40 | 0,50 | 0,55 | 1,70 | 0,55 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: RSM Ebner Stolz
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| USU Software | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| A0BVU2 | DE000A0BVU28 | AG | 226,26 Mio € | 21.03.2000 | Halten | 8FWFV4MG+XH |
| PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 23,89 | 31,11 | 0,77 | 39,67 | 5,63 | 28,70 | 1,71 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 0,55 | 1,70 | 0,55 | 2,56% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 08.08.2024 | 23.05.2024 | 29.08.2024 | 21.11.2024 | 28.03.2024 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -2,20% | +13,25% | +28,36% | +26,84% | +0,00% |
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