Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	01.08.2025
Target price:	EUR 13.00
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Henry Wendisch

Q2 preliminary EBIT out, no cause for headaches.

Topic: Yesterday, MLP announced its preliminary Q2 EBIT to arrive at only € 5m but confirmed its FY25 guidance. Here’s our view:

In a seasonally weak second quarter, MLP has reported a preliminary EBIT of € 5m, which is “significantly below” the prior year figure (Q2’24 EBIT: € 11.7m) and triggered therefore the legal obligation to ad-hoc this information. However, the EBIT figure should not be a big surprise and no reason for headaches for several reasons:

Seasonally weak second quarters are the norm at MLP. In the past, the second quarter is seasonally weak and have low operating leverage (seasonally lower sales with stable fixed costs). The FY share of Q2 EBITs’ usually ranges between 5-10% of the FY EBIT (ex performance fees), showing the minor importance of Q2. On the other hand, Q1 (“non-life quarter”) and Q4 (“old-age quarter”) traditionally carry a larger revenue and earnings share and are thus much more important for MLP’s FY results.

Absence of performance fees in Q2. FERI’s funds should not have triggered meaningful performance fees in Q2’25. However, the comparable base of Q2’24 had a positive € 5.4m performance fee contribution, which alone explains a negative € 3.5m EBIT effect yoy (eNuW, assuming a 65% incremental EBIT margin of performance fees).

Lower interest rate environment. Also unsurprisingly, MLP’s banking business should have yielded a lower net interest income (NIC) in Q2’25 (eNuW: € 11.2, down by € 3m or 21% yoy) than in Q2’24. Here, we estimate a 85% incremental EBIT margin on the NIC, which implies another € 2.5m negative EBIT effect yoy.

RE recovery does not come over night. On the other hand, the lower interest rate environment should foster the RE business of MLP. However, this business cannot be switched on or off over night but takes time to show improving results and to make up for the decline in the banking business. Here, for the segment “Deutschland.Immobilien”, we expect a positive, but under proportionate rise in EBIT from € -4m in Q2’24 to € -2m in Q2’25e, thus posing a positive € 2m EBIT effect yoy.

Temporarily higher IT costs. Current IT projects should have also led to temporarily higher OPEX, which we estimate in the ballpark of € 3m, further burdening Q2 EBIT. Moreover, the timing seemed unfavorable, as they have been recognized in MLP’s seasonally weakest quarter, in our view.

The sum of all effects described above fully explain why the Q2 EBIT came in at € 5m (vs € 11.7m in Q2´24). Apart from the higher IT costs, we had already anticipated the effects, in our Q2 EBIT estimates of € 7-8m.

However, the fact that MLP simultaneously confirmed the guidance (EBIT: € 100-110m), should also support our view, that this ad-hoc should not be a concern. Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 13.00, based on FCFY and SOTP.

You can download the research here: mlp-se-2025-08-01-update-en-39903
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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