Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	15.08.2024
Target price:	EUR 11.50
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Henry Wendisch

Solid Q2 driven by wealth management and banking

Topic: Following preliminary EBIT results from 29th July (see update from 30th July), MLP provided more details with final Q2 results yesterday. Here's what's new:

• Solid sales figures: Total revenues grew by 8.5% yoy to € 230m (H1: € 514m, +8% yoy), especially driven by market tailwinds in Wealth Mangement (+18% yoy; 39% of sales), Interest Income (+48% yoy; 10% of sales) and Real Estate Brokerage (+128% yoy; 4% of sales), which have offset the decline in Non-Life Insurance (-7% yoy; 15% of sales), while Old-Age Provision (+1% yoy; 22% of sales) and Health Insurance (+5% yoy; 6% of sales) have remained stable. 
• Non-life Insurance and Old-Age Provision temporarily muted: Albeit demand for occupational pension schemes at MLP's institutional clients has temporarily decreased due to investment restraints at SMEs, management expects a rebound in the next quarters. The current weakness in Non-Life Insurance stemmed from a discontinuation of lowmargin contracts, which temporarily burdens the top-line but should ultimately benefit the bottom-line going forward.
• EBIT mix driven by banking, brokerage and wealth management: H1's EBIT showed a substantial improvement over H1'23 (+30% yoy to €  48.7m). Here, the main expansion drivers were similar to sales with banking (+30% yoy), brokerage (+229% yoy) and wealth management (+47% yoy). Especially the net interest income of € 28m (+26% yoy) in banking as well as performance fees of €  9.2m  (+362% yoy)  in wealth management conbtributed significantly  to profitability and made up c. 76% of H1 EBIT. On  the other hand, in RE development (i.e. Deutschland.Immobilien) H1  EBIT worsened to € -9m (vs. € 3m in H1'23) due to the near fullstop of projects.-
• Real estate rebound ahead: While RE brokerage  already saw a strong jump from low levels (Q2 sales +128% yoy and 176% qoq), RE development should have reached its low now and follow brokerage going foward. Here management expects a steady rise in sales in the next quarters, which should lead to a less negative EBIT in H2'24e and even a positive EBIT in FY'25e.
• Improved KPIs on all fronts: Next to record sales and EBIT figures, MLP posted record AuMs of €  60.5bn (+7% yoy), a record non-life insurance volume of € 729m (+7% yoy) and a strong net liquidity of € 220m (vs. € 191m per Y/E'23), the latter explaining 35% of its market cap. - 

All in all a solid release, showing that MLP is on track to outperform its guidance. By simply assuming last year's H2 EBIT (€  37.2m excl. one-offs) for H2'24e, FY'24e EBIT would stand at €  86m, already above the specified guidance of € 80-85m. Furthermore, we expect EBIT to come in at € 90m, based on (1) a still strong net interest income, (2) higher AuMs and (3) less negative impacts from RE development expected for H2.

In our view, MLP shares remain  highly attractive, trading at 16% adj. FCF yield, a 5.6% dividend yield and only on 5.3x EV/EBIT for FY'24e, while also being a  well diversified and stable quality business.  Therefore, we reiterate our BUY recommendation and MLP's position in our NuWays' AlphaList with an unchanged PT of € 11.50, based on FCFY'24e and SOTP

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/30493.pdf
For additional information visit our website: www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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