Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA (von NuWays AG): BUY
Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 18.03.2024
Target price: 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
RS feedback: New formats offering upside / chg.
Last week, we hosted a digital roadshow with BVB CFO Thomas Treß, which underpinned our view that the club is set to benefit from several structural changes going forward. The main takeaways:
Bundesliga broadcasting rights: In Q2, the German Football League (DFL) is starting to market the media rights for the 4-year period starting with the season 2025/26. While the current 4-year deal has a total value of € 4.4bn, fears were arising that the next deal could decrease in volume after the Italian and French Leagues had to cut back recently. However, the recent abortion of the “No-Single-Buyer-Rule” is set to intensify the bidding contest. Hence, we do not expect a decrease and conservatively forecast the deal volume to remain on the same level as in the current period.
New UCL. Although UEFA did not disclose final details on the prize money distribution for the new UCL format, earnings should increase by at least 20% compared to the current format given success in the competition. Yet, as the share of performance-based premiums will increase by 7.5pp to 37.5%, the delta is seen to increase, depending on a teams progresses in the tournament. Moreover, the CWC (click here for more detail) is seen to provide a liquidity boost in 2025, which is not yet reflected in our model as no detailed information were released yet by FIFA.
Sponsorship upside. While TV marketing or transfer sales are subject to a certain volatility based on sporting success and talent development, sales in the sponsoring segment are seen to deliver stable growth going forward. Both, the expiry of the Evonik and 1&1 contracts next year as well as the CWC and the associated new sponsorship opportunities in the US are seen to provide upside in the coming years, in our view.
Besides that, BVB reached the quarterfinals of the UCL after beating Eindhoven last week. As this resulted in € 10.6m additional premium payments, BVB consequently lifted its net profit guidance range by € 10m, which we continue to consider as conservative, given the strong H1. BVB will now face Atletico Madrid in the quarterfinals. While we rate this as a 50/50 fixture, we conservatively do not model the € 12.5m in premiums BVB would receive if advancing to the semifinals.
BVB shares continue to trade on attractive levels of 0.9x EV/Sales, significantly below the peer average of 3.9x. The stock hence remains a BUY with an unchanged PT of € 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29175.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
| The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | 2025e | ||
| Sales1 | 370,20 | 334,17 | 351,65 | 418,24 | 509,11 | 503,00 | 0,00 | |
| EBITDA1,2 | 62,99 | 38,95 | 80,76 | 123,22 | 150,26 | 117,00 | 0,00 | |
| EBITDA-Margin3 | 17,02 | 11,66 | 22,97 | 29,46 | 29,51 | 23,26 | 0,00 | |
| EBIT1,4 | -43,14 | -72,09 | -29,18 | 16,91 | 45,93 | 0,00 | 0,00 | |
| EBIT-Margin5 | -11,65 | -21,57 | -8,30 | 4,04 | 9,02 | 0,00 | 0,00 | |
| Net Profit (Loss)1 | -43,95 | -72,81 | -35,06 | 9,55 | 44,31 | 11,00 | 0,00 | |
| Net-Margin6 | -11,87 | -21,79 | -9,97 | 2,28 | 8,70 | 2,19 | 0,00 | |
| Cashflow1,7 | -0,36 | 15,95 | 35,07 | 54,43 | 47,20 | 41,00 | 0,00 | |
| Earnings per share8 | -0,48 | -0,79 | -0,33 | 0,09 | 0,40 | 0,12 | 0,26 | |
| Dividend per share8 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,06 | 0,06 | 0,06 | |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: Deloitte
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
| INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
| ©boersengefluester.de | ||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | ||||||
| WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
| 549309 | DE0005493092 | GmbH & Co. KGaA | 352,16 Mio € | 30.10.2000 | Kaufen | 9F39FFX2+69 |
| PE 2026e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
| 10,29 | 24,82 | 0,41 | -39,88 | 1,10 | 7,46 | 0,69 |
|
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
| 0,00 | 0,06 | 0,06 | 1,88% |
| Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
| 25.11.2024 | 14.11.2024 | 14.02.2025 | 15.05.2025 | 27.09.2024 |
| Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
| -3,89% | -10,92% | +1,59% | -12,00% | -71,00% |
Founded in 2013 by Gereon Kruse, the financial portal boersengefluester.de is all about German shares - with a clear focus on second-line stocks. In addition to traditional editorial articles, the site stands out in particular thanks to a large number of self-developed analysis tools. All tools are based on a completely self-maintained database for more than 650 shares. As a result, boersengefluester.de produces Germany's largest profit and dividend forecast.
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