Original-Research: Cenit AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Classification of GBC AG to Cenit AG

Company Name:	Cenit AG
ISIN:	DE0005407100
Reason for the research:	Research Study (Anno)
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	19.00 €
Target price on sight of:	31.12.2025
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Significant improvement in earnings expected after transition year 2025; M&A activity to take a back seat for the time being

In the past 2024 financial year, CENIT AG achieved a visible jump in sales of 12.2% with sales of € 207.33 million (previous year: € 184.72 million). The guidance adjusted in October, which forecast sales of € 205 to € 210 million, was thus fully met. The first-time inclusion of sales from the companies acquired in 2024, CCE and Analysis Prime, was responsible for sales of € 12.95 million, meaning that the company reported organic sales growth of 5.2%. This is slightly above the internal target of organic growth of at least 5.0%.

All product segments contributed to the increase in revenue with at least double-digit growth. While both service revenue (+14.7%) and third-party software revenue (+10.7%) benefited from inorganic growth, among other things, proprietary software revenue also increased dynamically by 14.8%. Although the revenue share of this particularly high value-added product area is still below the 10.0% mark at 9.3%, the acquisitions of recent years had a dilutive effect here.

Among other things, the M&A-related incidental costs (€ 1.12 million) and the flatter increase in earnings in the traditionally strong fourth quarter led to a disproportionately low increase in EBITDA of 5.2% to € 17.26 million (previous year: € 16.41 million). Without taking into account the special effects, CENIT AG would have reported an EBITDA increase of 12.0%. Below EBITDA, the accrued PPA amortization of the last acquisitions is noticeable, which led to a decline in EBIT of -19.9 % to € 7.38 million (previous year: € 9.22 million). The fact that, contrary to expectations, a negative result for the period of € -1.94 million (previous year: € 4.50 million) had to be reported is exclusively due to extraordinary write-downs on financial instruments in the amount of € 5.60 million. A financial investment (ASCon) had to be written off in full.

For the current financial year, CENIT's management anticipates a year of transition in which inorganic growth will be suspended and the focus will be on internal processes to improve profitability. With the first-time full-year inclusion of Analysis Prime in 2025, Group sales are expected to increase significantly between € 229 million and € 234 million and EBITA (EBIT before PPA amortization) slightly to € 12.4 million (previous year: € 11.35 million). This includes restructuring expenses of around € 4.0 million.

For the 2025 financial year, we expect sales revenue of € 230.22 million, assuming sales growth of 3.0% in addition to the base effect of Analysis Prime. For the two subsequent financial years, we are assuming organic sales growth of slightly over 5.0% in each case. Following the restructuring expenses in 2025, margin increases should be achieved again from the coming financial year 2026 (savings effect: approx. € 5.0 million). For 2025, we expect EBITA of € 12.40 million (EBITA margin: 5.4%) and anticipate a gradual increase in the margin to 8.4% by 2027.

The DCF valuation result is unchanged at € 19.00/share. Marginal changes in the forecasts for the financial years 2025 and 2026 are offset by the first-time inclusion of the financial year 2027 in the forecast period, so that any valuation changes cancel each other out. We continue to assign the BUY rating.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32282.pdf

Contact for questions:
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of interest can be found at:

https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date and time of completion of the study: 22/04/25 (08:12 am)
Date and time of the first dissemination of the study: 22/04/25 (10:00 am)