Original-Research: UBM Development AG (von NuWays AG): Kaufen
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 30.05.2024
Target price: EUR 27.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Market reopening still pending / chg.
Yesterday, UBM released muted Q1 results following the continued standstill on the European real estate transaction market. Yet, the company was able to dispose some smaller non-strategic assets.
Q1 sales increased on a low level by 14% yoy to € 20.4m (eNuW: € 25m) and were predominantly driven by the progress on construction of previously sold projects, which are recognized over time based on the percentage of completion. Q1 EBITDA decreased yoy and came in at € -2.2m. The decline can be mainly attributed to an increase in material expenses, mainly related to construction costs, as well as slightly higher other OpEx, which was mainly due to unfavorable FX-effects.
On a positive note, the company had a promising start to the year regarding the disposal of non-strategic assets. In fact, UBM sold five slots of the Arcus City to a Czech construction company, one building of the Poleczki Business Park to Porr as well as a 15% stake of the Andaz hotel in Prague to IGO, which now holds a 40% overall stake. While no further details were disclosed, the net cash inflow from the transaction should amount to c. € 25m (eNuW). Overall, management is in advanced negotiations to sell further non-strategic assets as it targets a total net volume of € 75m in FY ‘24e. Importantly, no disposal was made below book value, which has to be seen as a clear hint that the trough has been reached.
Despite this, management provided a rather conservative outlook for FY ‘24e as it is expecting a pre-tax loss (eNuW new: € -7.7m), which is however expected to be an improvement compared to FY ’23 (€ -39m). Given that a sudden reopening of the market is still not in sight, we, however, regard this as reasonable despite the positive trends mentioned above.
All in all, we continue to consider UBM to be well positioned for the pending reopening of the transaction market, given its appealing product offering, which is focussed on sustainable real estate projects. In fact, as of Q1, 77% of the company’s € 1.9bn 4-year pro-rata pipeline consists of timber-hybrid projects, which do not only significantly reduce the carbon emissions but also offer cost advantages due to the modular and serial construction. We hence expect UBM’s projects to be meet strong demand once the market reopens, as investors become increasingly under pressure to comply with the EU taxonomy.
The stock remains a BUY, new PT of € 27.00 based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29931.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
Sales1 | 514,05 | 242,00 | 183,34 | 278,31 | 133,94 | 85,32 | 0,00 | |
EBITDA1,2 | 58,89 | 74,97 | 65,10 | 75,93 | 39,17 | -27,28 | 0,00 | |
EBITDA-Margin3 | 11,46 | 30,98 | 35,51 | 27,28 | 29,24 | -31,97 | 0,00 | |
EBIT1,4 | 55,94 | 71,45 | 62,01 | 73,30 | 33,91 | -30,06 | 0,00 | |
EBIT-Margin5 | 10,88 | 29,53 | 33,82 | 26,34 | 25,32 | -35,23 | 0,00 | |
Net Profit (Loss)1 | 39,49 | 50,06 | 40,75 | 43,71 | 27,11 | -46,05 | 0,00 | |
Net-Margin6 | 7,68 | 20,69 | 22,23 | 15,71 | 20,24 | -53,97 | 0,00 | |
Cashflow1,7 | 113,81 | -39,92 | -34,64 | -45,71 | -70,74 | -54,48 | 0,00 | |
Earnings per share8 | 5,31 | 6,16 | 4,39 | 4,50 | 2,25 | -3,14 | 1,15 | |
Dividend per share8 | 2,20 | 2,20 | 2,20 | 2,25 | 1,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: BDO
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INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
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UBM Development | ||||||
WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
852735 | AT0000815402 | AG | 119,93 Mio € | Halten | 8FWR598Q+W2 |
PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
6,17 | 8,80 | 0,70 | 4,68 | 0,32 | -2,20 | 1,41 |
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
1,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
21.05.2025 | 28.05.2025 | 28.08.2025 | 28.11.2024 | 11.04.2025 |
Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
-11,93% | -17,89% | -23,93% | -24,65% | +114,00% |
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