Original-Research: UBM Development AG (von NuWays AG): BUY
Original-Research: UBM Development AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to UBM Development AG
Company Name: UBM Development AG
ISIN: AT0000815402
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 15.03.2024
Target price: 28.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY ’23 prelims: EBT below est. due to higher devaluation / chg.
UBM released preliminary FY ’23 figures, which came in below our estimates following higher than anticipated devaluations of the company’s development as well as standing asset portfolio. Management now expects an EBT loss of € 39m (vs eNuW of € -23.6m vs eCons € -21.4m). Final FY figures will be released on April 11th.
Overall, UBM had to write down € 70m throughout 2023, which should have been divided equally into project and standing asset revaluations. The main reason for this is seen to be the ongoing weakness of the real estate market, with only slight gradual increases in transaction volumes and ever more larger players filing for bankruptcy (e.g. Signa). Although management indicated that technical pressure for further devaluations in 2024e should be limited, we conservatively estimate a slight devaluation of c. 1%.
Despite the devaluation and the redemption of its hybrid bond, UBM
continues to provide sound balance
sheet metrics with a cash position of € 152m and an equity ratio which
remains in the target corridor
of 30-35%. Importantly, the company has no major maturities until November
2025 (€ 120m corporate
bond), which marks a major competitive advantage as it provides management
with sufficient headroom
until the market regains traction.
On another positive note, the company was able to divest its 33.5% share of Palais Hansen to Wiener Städtische in Q4. Given a fair value of € 100m, a 7% discount to book value and an LTV of 45% this should have resulted in net cash inflows of c. € 17m (eNuW). Moreover, a 25% in the Vienna-based project “Central Hub”, a mix between office and light industrial, was acquired. The 9,800m sqm project is set to be completed in Q1 ’25.
Overall and despite the muted FY 2023 preliminary figures, we continue to like UBM as we regard the company as well equipped to cope with the current macroeconomic headwinds, as earnings from the € 2.3bn pipeline should protect profitability going forward (eNuW: 10-15% developer margin). Moreover, with 75% of the pipeline being planned in hybrid-timber construction, the company is in a perfect position to benefit from the increasing pressure for investors to comply with the EU taxonomy. Hence, demand for projects should further increase going forward.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of € 28.00 based on DDM.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29169.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
Boersengefluester.de (BGFL) provides an overview of the key figures on sales, earnings, cash flow and dividends to help you better assess the fundamental development of the respective companies. All information is entered manually in our database - the source is the respective annual reports. All estimates for future figures are provided by BGFL.
The most important financial data at a glance | ||||||||
2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024e | ||
Sales1 | 514,05 | 242,00 | 183,34 | 278,31 | 133,94 | 85,32 | 0,00 | |
EBITDA1,2 | 58,89 | 74,97 | 65,10 | 75,93 | 39,17 | -27,28 | 0,00 | |
EBITDA-Margin3 | 11,46 | 30,98 | 35,51 | 27,28 | 29,24 | -31,97 | 0,00 | |
EBIT1,4 | 55,94 | 71,45 | 62,01 | 73,30 | 33,91 | -30,06 | 0,00 | |
EBIT-Margin5 | 10,88 | 29,53 | 33,82 | 26,34 | 25,32 | -35,23 | 0,00 | |
Net Profit (Loss)1 | 39,49 | 50,06 | 40,75 | 43,71 | 27,11 | -46,05 | 0,00 | |
Net-Margin6 | 7,68 | 20,69 | 22,23 | 15,71 | 20,24 | -53,97 | 0,00 | |
Cashflow1,7 | 113,81 | -39,92 | -34,64 | -45,71 | -70,74 | -54,48 | 0,00 | |
Earnings per share8 | 5,31 | 6,16 | 4,39 | 4,50 | 2,25 | -3,14 | 1,15 | |
Dividend per share8 | 2,20 | 2,20 | 2,20 | 2,25 | 1,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 |
1 in Mio. Euro; 2 EBITDA = Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation; 3 EBITDA in relation to sales; 4 EBIT = Earnings before interest and taxes; 5 EBIT in relation to sales; 6 Net profit (-loss) in relation to sales; 7 Cashflow from operations; 8 in Euro; Source: boersengefluester.de
Auditor: BDO
All relevant valuation ratios, dates and other investor information on your share at a glance. Good to know: All data comes from boersengefluester.de and is updated daily. This means you are always up to date. You can get brief explanations of the key figures by moving the cursor or mouse over the relevant field.
INVESTOR-INFORMATION | ||||||
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UBM Development | ||||||
WKN | ISIN | Legal Type | Marketcap | IPO | Recommendation | Plus Code |
852735 | AT0000815402 | AG | 119,93 Mio € | Halten | 8FWR598Q+W2 |
PE 2025e | PE 10Y-Ø | BGFL-Ratio | Shiller-PE | PB | PCF | KUV |
6,17 | 8,80 | 0,70 | 4,68 | 0,32 | -2,20 | 1,41 |
Dividend '2022 in € |
Dividend '2023 in € |
Dividend '2024e in € |
Div.-Yield '2024e in % |
1,10 | 0,00 | 0,00 | 0,00% |
Annual General Meeting | Q1-figures | Q2-figures | Q3-figures | Annual press conference |
21.05.2025 | 28.05.2025 | 28.08.2025 | 28.11.2024 | 11.04.2025 |
Distance 60-days-line | Distance 200-days-line | Performance YtD | Performance 52 weeks | IPO |
-11,93% | -17,89% | -23,93% | -24,65% | +114,00% |
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