Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu MHP Hotel AG

Unternehmen:	MHP Hotel AG
ISIN:	DE000A3E5C24
Anlass der Studie:	Update
Empfehlung:	BUY
Kursziel:	EUR 3.5
Kursziel auf Sicht von:	12 months
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

MOOONS goes Germany, final FY25 out; chg.

Yesterday, MHP provided the market with two news items: (1) the company announced the first German MOOONS hotel & (2) released its FY25 annual report. In detail:

MOOONS is coming to Frankfurt. MHP has signed a long-term lease with Rock Capital Group for a 200+ room upscale lifestyle hotel in central Frankfurt, opening in 2029. The property will be converted from an office building with two additional floors added, explaining the ~3-year development timeline. Management guides for stabilised annual sales of € 12-14m at an 8-10% EBITDA margin, implying stabilised EBITDA of € 1.1-1.4m. As with the original MOOONS in Vienna, the margin profile is set to be structurally superior to MHP's franchise portfolio: by cutting out the franchise partner entirely, MOOONS retains the royalty and system fees that would otherwise flow to Marriott, Hilton or Hyatt, directly boosting bottom-line conversion. In fact, the Vienna hotel is already posting 11% EBITDA margins, making the management projection appear rather conservative. On top of that, the lean F&B model, with a reduced footprint and lower staffing requirements, is explicitly designed as a margin driver rather than a cost centre.

In yesterday’s CC, CEO Frehse added further conviction to the MOOONS growth story, stating that two additional projects beyond Frankfurt are currently in advanced planning, and did not rule out that MOOONS could one day evolve into its own franchise model, which would effectively turn MHP from a pure franchisee into a franchisor. That optionality is not reflected in our estimates and could represent a significant re-rating catalyst. RevPar in Frankfurt (market estimates) is forecasted to grow 11% through 2029 (Eastdil/PMA), and operational synergies with the nearby JW Marriott via the YMCS platform should support the unit economics.

In addition to this, the FY25 report was released, showing sales in line with the implication from the Q4 trading statement at € 178m (+10.6% yoy). Adj. EBITDA (ex. Conrad) increased 33% yoy to € 8.0m, driven by operating leverage especially in connection with the ramp up of the Koenigshof and JW Marriott (post-renovation). On hotel KPIs: stripping out the Conrad ramp-up effect, adj. RevPar rose 6% to € 179 and adj. occupancy held stable at 78%, a strong result given the tough comp. with the Euros and Munich concert series (e.g. Adele, Taylor Swift) in 2024.

Given strong Q1 momentum (sales up 25% to € 41.5m), the FY guidance of € 225m sales (eNuW: € 227m) and >€ 10m reported EBITDA (eNuW: € 10.2m) was confirmed. In our view, the release, especially the MOOONS rollout, fully confirms the investment case as MHP transitions from a franchisee-heavy business model into a multi-pillar platform operator.

At 5.1x FY26e EV/EBITDA the stock continues to trade at highly undemanding levels. We hence confirm BUY, PT raised to € 3.50 (old: € 3.30), based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: mhp-hotel-ag-2026-05-07-previewreview-en-e511c
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Kontakt für Rückfragen:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++