Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG

Company Name:	MHP Hotel AG
ISIN:	DE000A3E5C24
Reason for the research:	Preview / Review
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	19.09.2025
Target price:	EUR 3.00
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

H1 preview: Strong growth & margin expansion expected

Next Monday, MHP will release its H1 report, which we expect to come in strong following the already released hotel performance figures for Q2. In detail:

H1 sales are seen to increase 12.2% yoy to € 79.0m, carried by a strong development in Logis sales, which were up 14% yoy to € 60.1m according to the hotel performance reports. This was mainly driven by higher occupancy rates (eNuW: +1pp yoy in H1), another 8% (eNuW) improvement of the ADR to € 221 as well as the initial effect of the Koenigshof. The result is particularly impressive given the absence of major one-off events like the 2024 Euros or large concerts series (e.g. Adele in Munich). F&B sales also grew 11% yoy to € 16.3m, while the other sales segment should have remained stable yoy.

This should have resulted in the first positive H1 EBITDA since the listing. In fact, H1 EBITDA is expected at € 2.1m (H1’24: € -1.5m), implying a 2.7% margin. In our view, this clearly displays positive operating leverage, even during the seasonally softer H1.

On this basis, we expect management to confirm the FY25 outlook of c. € 180m sales (eNuW: € 185m) and EBITDA of € 15m (eNuW: € 15.3m/ € 10.3m adj. EBITDA excl. key money payments). In our view, this is absolutely in reach, considering the historically stronger H2, the initial impact from the Conrad in Hamburg (283 additional rooms, >10% increase on group level) as well as the ramp-up of the Koenigshof. Based on our H1 estimates, the guidance implies 11.5% yoy H2 sales growth as well as an EBITDA margin of 12.8% (vs 13.1% in H2’24), which again is reasonable, in our view.

At least equally important, however, is what lies ahead for MHP. Following the successful capital increase in early Q3 (€ 4.5m gross proceeds at € 1.45 per share), the company is now well-positioned to further expand its portfolio. The timing seems perfect, given that the current challenges several peers are facing should create attractive opportunities for MHP. With industry-leading KPIs and approximately € 10m in available funds, MHP is well-placed to secure some attractive locations in the coming quarters. Note that aside from the already planned openings in Hamburg and Stuttgart, we do not consider any portfolio additions in our model, indicating that any announcements would result in further upside.

Besides taking over hotels and operating them under a top-tier hotel brand (e.g. Marriott or Hilton), we expect MHP to also further roll out its own boutique brand MOOONS, following the promising performance of its first location in Vienna (11% EBITDA margin in FY24).

Overall, we maintain our strong conviction of the investment case, which is supported by the company’s current EV/adj. EBITDA and FCFY metrics. We therefore reiterate our BUY rating and keep our PT unchanged at € 3.00 based on DCF.

You can download the research here: mhp-hotel-ag-2025-09-19-previewreview-en-e32ab
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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