Original-Research: Avemio AG (von GBC AG): BUY

Original-Research: Avemio AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Avemio AG

Unternehmen: Avemio AG
ISIN: DE000A2LQ1P6

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: BUY
Kursziel: 32.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Niklas Ripplinger

Sales and earnings for 2023 below expectations, forecasts and price target reduced, BUY rating confirmed
 
According to preliminary figures for the past financial year, Avemio AG suffered a decline in sales to around € 103 million (previous year: € 108.7 million), contrary to previously communicated expectations. The company had previously expected sales of € 120 million. The expected recovery in demand in the second half of the year failed to materialise, primarily due to the persistently weak economy. The trading companies VDH Video Data Handels GmbH and BPM Broadcast & Professional Media GmbH were particularly affected by this, while the trading company Teltec AG recorded a robust sales trend. In addition to lower demand from consumers (VDH) and for high-priced equipment (BPM), the decline in sales was also due to a lack of innovation in the area of professional film and television technology. In addition, many customers had made investments during the coronavirus pandemic, which led to certain pull-forward effects for previous years. Despite these difficulties, sales exceeded the € 100 million mark for the third time in a row, although sales were significantly below our previous expectations (old GBC forecast: € 127.50 million).
 
According to the company, the decline in sales was compounded by pressure on margins due to market prices, which led to a fall in the gross margin. The preliminary EBITDA of around € 0.8 million (previous year: € 4.4 million) is therefore significantly below the previous guidance and our forecasts. The company had previously forecast EBITDA of € 5.0 million, on the basis of which we had forecast EBITDA of € 5.6 million. EBITDA of € 1.0 million in the first half of the year is therefore offset by negative EBITDA of € -0.2 million in the second half of the year.  
In the corporate news of 22 January 2014, Avemio's management emphasised the company's continued solid capital base. With equity of € 12.5 million (30.06.23: € 13.0 million) and an equity ratio of 35% (30.06.23: 37%), the company has cash and cash equivalents of € 5.8 million. In addition, credit lines totalling € 2.6 million can be utilised and there is a commitment from the state of Hesse for mezzanine financing in the amount of € 5 million. This capitalisation is intended to further drive M&A growth as one of the company's most important strategic pillars. A further company acquisition could be announced in the first half of 2024.  
We are adjusting our original forecast for the past financial year in line with the preliminary figures. Based on EBITDA of € 0.8 million, we expect negative earnings after taxes of around € -0.5 million. Due to the lower starting position, we are also reducing our estimates for the two financial years 2024 and 2025. Our estimates still do not include organic growth, which is, however, an important part of the corporate strategy. Based on the forecast reduction, we have set a new target price of €32.00. We continue to assign a BUY rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/28767.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential conflict of interest: (5a,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of interest can be found at https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date (time) of completion: 29/01/24 (9:33 am) Date (time) first distribution: 29/01/24 (11:00 am)

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