Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	29.08.2025
Target price:	EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Henry Wendisch

tonies released a solid set of Q2 results but were impacted by growth investments in light of the launch of TB2. In detail:

Q2 sales grew by 16% yoy to € 79m. Regionally, North America grew by 14% yoy to € 31m (39% of group sales), whereas Rest of World maintained its strong momentum and grew by 74% yoy to € 16m (21% of group sales) especially driven by France, UK, Australia and New Zealand while DACH remained flat yoy at € 32m (40% of group sales). On a product group level, sales from tonies grew by +22% yoy to € 60m on the back of 7% more units sold and a 14% higher ASP of € 10.03, mainly thanks to price increases in the USA since May 2025. On the other hand, the sales from tonieboxes declined by 14% yoy to € 15.8m with ASP flat yoy and 14% less units sold, as retailers have reduced inventory build up in anticipation of TB2.

On an H1 basis, which includes are more detailed profitability picture, gross profit after licensing costs grew faster than sales by 29% yoy to € 104m (58.8% margin, up 4.1pp yoy) mainly thanks to lower relative COGS (-3.6pp yoy sales ratio), but also due a better mix effect affecting licensing costs (-0.4pp yoy). This effect is a result of the aforementioned growth of tonies and decline of tonieboxes, as tonies in general carry a much higher gross margin than tonieboxes but also benefitted from the price increase (as of May 1st in the US). Consequently, contribution profit expanded drastically by 38% yoy to € 76m (42.9% margin, up 5.6pp yoy) on the back of further logistic efficiency gains due to better scale.

On the other hand, adj. EBITDA was nonetheless impacted by higher personell costs (+27% yoy; 18.9% sales ratio, up 1pp yoy) which led to an adj. EBITDA of at € 3.8m (-4% yoy; 2.1% margin, down 0.5pp yoy). This should stem mainly from the personnel ramp up and incurred development costs of TB2.

Following more tariff clarity, tonies issued a FY 25 guidance. Sales are expected to grow by more than 25% yoy (before FX) to above € 600m. Thereof, NA should grow by 30% yoy. Adj. EBITDA margin is seen between 6.5-8.5% in FY'25e.

A key highlight was launch of the “Toniebox 2” (TB2). Many new features (e.g. “Tonieplay”, sleep timer, sun alarm, …) are aimed to increase usage by adding interactivity to the linear audio, thus increase lock in effects and platform loyalty, which creates the basis for higher recurring revenues. Moreover, TB2 doubles the addressable market by expanding the age-group to 1-9 (prev. 3-7 with TB1) in two ways: (1) the new “My First Tonies” are especially designed and approved for toddlers, giving parents an earlier touchpoint to get to know the tonies ecosystem and build trust with the brand and (2) the interactive audio and games-like features of “Tonieplay” (that only work on the TB2) gives parents in today’s tech saturated childhoods an opportunity to have a screen-free toy until the age of 9+, for which age group screen-based toys are still not healthy. All in all, TB2 is seen as the largest product innovation since the start in 2016, creates strong up- and cross-selling opportunities and should thus play an important role of continuing tonies’ growth ahead.

Against this backdrop, we recommend to BUY with a PT of € 11.00, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2025-08-29-previewreview-en-82779
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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