Original-Research: Schaeffler AG (von Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft): BUY

Classification of Quirin Privatbank Kapitalmarktgeschäft to Schaeffler AG

Company Name:	Schaeffler AG
ISIN:	DE000SHA0100
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	04.03.2026
Target price:	8.70
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Daniel Kukalj, CEFA, CIIA

Everything depends on e-mobility

In our view, the 2025 financial figures presentation was a non-event; the recent decline in the share price is due to geopolitical crises and the rather conservative outlook for 2026. The gap is also widening in some areas with regard to the medium-term targets (MTT) for 2028.
Revenue gap: The group 2026 guidance midpoint of EUR 23.5bn sits well below the MTT 2028 of EUR 27-29bn. Closing this gap requires incremental revenue of EUR 3.5-5.5bn in just two years, implying a required annual growth rate of ~7-11%. The vast majority of this growth must come from E-Mobility (which needs to roughly double from EUR ~5.5bn to EUR 8.25-9.0bn) and VLS (from ~EUR 3.2bn to EUR 3.75-4.25bn). This makes the successful delivery of the EUR 9.3bn order backlog in E-Mobility the single most critical variable for the investment case. Any delays in OEM program launches or shifts in EV adoption timelines would directly impact this trajectory.
EBIT margin gap: The 2026 EBIT margin midpoint of 4.5% needs to expand to 6-8% by 2028, requiring 150-350bps of improvement. This is achievable through three vectors: (1) E-Mobility loss reduction / breakeven adding ~200-300bps to group margin as the division scales from -14% to 0%, (2) continued synergy/restructuring benefits reaching the full EUR 815m run-rate, and (3) operating leverage from revenue growth in VLS and B&IS. PTC is essentially margin-neutral at target already.
We confirm our BUY rating with a higher PT of EUR 8.70 (7.50) based on our ROE/COE valuation approach, now including 2027-2028 estimates.

Conclusion – not all is bad
Schaeffler shares trade at an implied EV/EBITDA of approximately 6.2x on FY 2026e numbers at a discount of > 20% to Global automotive supplier peers. This discount reflects the market's skepticism on E-Mobility breakeven and the structural challenges in the European automotive landscape. However, the order intake data underscores a pivotal shift in Schaeffler's powertrain mix. The HEV book-to-bill of 2.2x (FY) and 3.3x (Q4 alone) signals a massive wave of incoming hybrid orders from European and American OEMs for mild hybrid drive systems and double inverters. BEV continues to outperform market growth by over 13 percentage points, though the 1.3x book-to-bill is more moderate. ICE, predictably, is in managed decline with a 0.7x book-to-bill. Total order intake of EUR 15.5bn against sales of EUR 12.5bn (1.2x book-to-bill) provides strong revenue visibility for the group's automotive divisions. The 20% dividend increase to EUR 0.30 per share (approximately 5.9% yield) provides some downside support.
 

You can download the research here: SCHAEFFLER_AG_20260304
For additional information visit our website: https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/

Contact for questions:
Quirin Privatbank AG
Institutionelles Research
Schillerstraße 20
60313 Frankfurt am Main
research@quirinprivatbank.de
https://research.quirinprivatbank.de/