Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE

Company Name:	123fahrschule SE
ISIN:	DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
from:	29.09.2025
Target price:	EUR 7.40
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

123f issues PW amid pending reform; chg.

Friday after market close, 123f put out an ad-hoc, stating that the company will likely not achieve its initial FY25 guidance of € 26-28m sales and € 1.5-2.5m EBITDA. From our perspective, this came as a surprise, following the strong H1 results published only three weeks ago, which also came with a confirmation of the FY outlook. In detail:

Management now expects sales to come to arrive in the range of € 25-26m, caused mainly by a weaker than anticipated performance in the professional driver and driving instructor training segments. Moreover, the still-pending reform of the driver training regulations (i.e. simulators & online theory lessons) is apparently delaying investment decisions thus dampening demand especially in the simulator segment. Although simulators provided an already strong revenue contribution in H1 (€ 0.7m), it still could not realize its full potential. Moreover, a major truck order expected for H2 did not materialize, while the communicated large order from Q1 (€ 1m) shrank to € 0.35m due to “political uncertainties in the US.

The EBITDA guidance was also reduced, as management is now targeting € 0.4-1.0m. This was due to higher operating costs in H2 following strategic personnel and investment decisions, one-off burdens from relocations and new site openings, and the weaker top-line development. Given the € 1.0m EBITDA in H1, the new outlook implies a negative € 0.3m EBITDA for H2 at mid-point. We hence position ourselves at the very upper end of the new guidance.

On a positive note, management emphasizes that the core driver, the private customer training segment (79% sales contribution in H1), is continuing to perform well with double-digit growth, higher sales per instructor, and strong profitability, providing resilience despite the weaker segments. Looking ahead, a catch-up in the simulator business from FY26 on appears to be in the cards once regulatory reforms are enacted and demand materializes, while investments in the ERP platform, AI, and process automation are expected to improve efficiency and scalability. Overall, the strategic agenda remains unchanged, underpinning confidence in sustained growth and margin expansion, in our view.

Overall, we continue to regard the case as fully intact, given the pending reform should only delay revenues. More importantly, 123f remains in pole position for the upcoming change in regulation given its unique set-up based on its proprietary digital platform as well as market leadership in most of Germany’s larger municipalities. Hence, the company remains well on track for sustained growth and margin expansion based on increasing scale effects.

We thus confirm our BUY rating with a reduced PT of € 7.40 (old: € 7.90) based on DCF.

You can download the research here: 123fahrschule-se-2025-09-29-update-en-4ef67
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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