Original-Research: MLP SE (von NuWays AG): Buy

Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE

Company Name:	MLP SE
ISIN:	DE0006569908
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	14.03.2025
Target price:	EUR 13.00
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Henry Wendisch

Q4 in line; dividend and new mid-term targets out; chg. est & PT

Q4 in line: Q4 total sales stood at € 303m (eNuW: € 303m; +5% yoy), whereas EBIT expanded by 12% yoy at € 29m (eNuW: € 29m), thus reaching the upper end of the EBIT guidance of € 85-95m (FY'24: € 95m). The main driver of Q4 EBIT in particular was the absence of a goodwill impairment (vs. € 4m in Q4'23). The FY'24 EBIT benefitted from performance fees of € 34m (eNuW: € 28m) and a solid banking business (NIC: € 56m), but were also dragged down by the RE segment (€ -12m EBIT). - see p. 2 for detailed sales split

20% dividend raise: Following an EPS increase by 43%, management proposed a dividend increase by 20% yoy to € 0.36 per share (eNuW: € 0.36), after 3 years of keeping DPS flat at € 0.30. This currently yields 5.1% and is tax-free according to § 27 KStG.

FY'25e guidance: As expected, MLP guides for € 100-110m EBIT (i.e. the old mid-term targets), which implies an EBIT expansion of 5-15% yoy, which is in line with our estimates (eNuW: € 105m). As we expect a lower performance fees than last year (eNuW: € 4m in '25 vs. € 34m in '24), the main EBIT driver should be the EBIT break-even in the RE segment Deutschland.Immobilien (FY'24: € -12m EBIT vs. eNuW: € 2m in '25e). - for a detailed EBIT breakdown see p. 2

New FY'28e mid-term targets: MLP expects sales between € 1,300-1,400m (eNuW: € 1,309m) and an EBIT between € 140-150m (eNuW: € 141m) by FY'28e, which implies top line CAGRs of 5-7% coupled with a EBIT margin expansion to 10-12% (FY'24: 9.2%). Furthermore, MLP aims for € 75-81bn AuMs (eNuW: € 77.3bn) and a non-life insurance volume of € 1,000-1,100m (eNuW: €1,036m). Assuming the dividend policy of a 50-70% payout, and based on an EPS between € 0.90-0.95 by FY'28e, the dividend should grow with a CAGR of 12% at mid-point, making MLP an attractive dividend payer, in our view. All of the targets are in line with our estimates and should thus be well achievable.

Mid-term targets rely on persistent demographic trends: In our view, the targets show the management's confidence in its steadily growing, well diversified and resilient business model. In particular, we like to see that the targets are less prone to short-term macroeconomic developments, but rely on undisputable demograhic trends visible all around. For example, baby boomers are starting to retire and at the same time an inheritance wave is visible (c. € 400bn inheritances annually in Germany). This creates not only demand from private clients in all of questions of wealth management, but also demand from corporate clients for occupational health insurance or pension schemes. Furthermore, the average pension gap in Germany is estimated at € 2,300 p.m. (thanks to an insufficient state pension among other reasons), which creates demand for private pensions, life insurance solutions and/or wealth management services such as RE investments, fund solutions and savings plans, especially from private clients that are not about to inherit a large sum of money. For all the demand drivers above, MLP offers plenty solutions, which leads us to see MLP well positioned to capture the trend.

In sum, MLP keeps on delivering as promised and we maintain our bullish view on the stock, as we regard its valuation not justified, especially in light of the strong position and solid growth prospects. Therefore, we keep MLP in our NuWays Alpha List and reiterate with our BUY recommendation with a new PT of € 13.00 (old: € 12.50), based on SOTP and FCFY'25e.

You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31978.pdf
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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