Original-Research: OHB SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE

Company Name:	OHB SE
ISIN:	DE0005936124
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 340
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Simon Keller

Q3 review: no change to the bigger picture; chg.

OHB's Q3 showed further margin improvement ahead of the larger programme ramp-up. Meanwhile, output growth moderated to 6% yoy from 11% in H1. With IRIS² and Sentinel contracts secured, attention should increasingly turn to their contribution in 2027 and the next major defence awards. In detail:

Margin progression remains encouraging. Q3 total operating performance increased 6% yoy to € 319m (eCons: € 331m). Adj. EBITDA rose 12% yoy to € 39.3m (eCons: € 39.0m), lifting the margin by 0.7pp to 12.3% (implied eCons: 11.8%). The company benefited from higher Ariane 6 activity, stronger demand from US launcher customers and defence components. Earlier staffing and machinery investments are now supporting higher production volumes, illustrating the potential for operating leverage as activity scales.

Higher one-off costs weigh on reported earnings. Reported Q3 EBITDA amounted to € 31.1m (eCons: € 36.7m), after € 8.2m of special items. Nine-month adjustments totalled € 32.2m, including € 26.8m of transaction costs. One-off costs should decline noticeably over the coming years as transformation expenses gradually phase out and the costs related to the capital increase do not recur (eNuW).

Q4 should benefit from higher project activity and deliveries. Confirmed guidance of c. € 1.4bn in total operating performance and a 10.5-11.0% adj. EBITDA margin implies Q4 output of c. € 454m (+18% yoy) and adj. EBITDA of € 47-54m. Planned project progress and subcontractor deliveries, including supplies deferred from Q3, support our view that guidance is well within reach.

Secured programmes strengthen visibility beyond 2026. September's order backlog increased 26% yoy to € 3.94bn, equivalent to 2.8x guided FY26 output, including the nearly € 1bn IRIS² award. The subsequent € 554m Sentinel-3 Next Generation Topography contract for the first satellite adds to this base, with an option for a second satellite providing further potential.

Growth should build through 2027 and 2028. The initial contribution from IRIS² and prospective defence contracts should build progressively through 2027 as development and production activity ramp up. FY27e output is expected at € 1,803m (+27% yoy, broadly in line with consensus), with adj. EBITDA of € 214m, implying a margin of 11.9%. Output growth is seen to then accelerate to 34% in FY28e, with the adj. EBITDA margin reaching 12.7% (eNuW).

2027 remains an important year for defence awards. OHB targets cumulative order intake of € 5.5bn for 2026/27, excluding SATCOMBw 4, with € 2.3bn already secured this year. SATCOMBw 4 remains the largest potential catalyst, with anticipated OHB order intake of € 5-7bn in H1 2027 (eNuW), adding to the existing order ambition.

Action: We lower FY26e estimates for slightly softer growth and higher one-off costs, and FY27e for a more gradual programme ramp-up. FY28 operating estimates remain unchanged.

BUY, PT unchanged at € 340, based on DCF.

You can download the research here: ohb-se-2026-11-13-previewreview-en-799e4
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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