Original-Research: Shelly Group SE (von Montega AG): Buy

Classification of Montega AG to Shelly Group SE

Company Name:	Shelly Group SE
ISIN:	BG1100003166
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	Buy
from:	11.09.2025
Target price:	61.00 EUR
Target price on sight of:	12 Months
Last rating change:	-
Analyst:	Bastian Brach

IFA-Feedback: Product Offensive Expected to Lead to Increased Dynamics in the Christmas Quarter

Shelly used this year's IFA to impressively expand its product portfolio and reinforce its position as one of the innovation leaders in the market. With one of the largest booths in the Smart Home area and strong visitor interest, the company once again succeeded in clearly setting itself apart from the competition.

New Products with High Market Potential: At the center of the product innovations were the new Wall Display Gen4 and the room sensor Shelly Presence Gen4. The Wall Display, presented in a larger and more modern version, functions as a central control unit for the entire Smart Home ecosystem. With the larger display, more powerful hardware, and a more intuitive user interface, Shelly creates an attractive interface for end users, significantly improving both functionality and design. Also noteworthy is the new room sensor, which, using radar technology, can detect not only the location but also the number of people present in a room without making video recordings. This opens up application possibilities, especially in sensitive areas such as hospitals or nursing homes, that go far beyond the classic Smart Home.

With the Shelly Flood Gen4, water leaks caused by defective washing machines, pipe bursts, or leaky heating systems can also be detected. In combination with cloud connectivity, the user can be immediately alerted via smartphone and, with appropriate equipment, initiate automated countermeasures such as shutting off water pumps or activating valves. The sensor also offers significant advantages in the commercial sector, as consequential damage caused by water can be prevented early. This not only enhances the attractiveness of Shelly's product portfolio but also strategically expands it with security solutions that offer clear measurable customer benefits. The high interest in the innovations is also evident as the digital product presentation on YouTube reached 40k views within the first four days, further underscoring the relevance of the Shelly community.

Medium-Term Goals Realistic: We see the consistent development of the product portfolio, both in terms of quality and breadth, as the foundation for achieving the medium-term goal of 200 million EUR in sales next year. If Shelly meets our expectations for the current fiscal year, a growth rate just below 35% would be necessary for 2026. Given the recent product launches, which are available in time for Black Friday and the Christmas business, we expect a more dynamic increase in revenues in the coming quarters compared to the first half of the year (H1: +29.3% yoy). This tailwind is likely to continue into the next year, as we position ourselves above the medium-term forecast with revenues of EUR 211.1m.

Conclusion: Shelly has used the attention of the IFA to present numerous new fourthgeneration products. This should position the Smart Home provider well for the important final quarter with Christmas business and Black Week to increase the growth rate as planned compared to H1. We reaffirm our buy recommendation with a target price of 61.00 EUR.



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Über Montega:
 
Die Montega AG ist eines der führenden bankenunabhängigen Researchhäuser mit klarem Fokus auf den deutschen Mittelstand. Das Coverage-Universum umfasst Titel aus dem MDAX, TecDAX, SDAX sowie ausgewählte Nebenwerte und wird durch erfolgreiches Stock-Picking stetig erweitert. Montega versteht sich als ausgelagerter Researchanbieter für institutionelle Investoren und fokussiert sich auf die Erstellung von Research-Publikationen sowie die Veranstaltung von Roadshows, Fieldtrips und Konferenzen. Zu den Kunden zählen langfristig orientierte Value-Investoren, Vermögensverwalter und Family Offices primär aus Deutschland, der Schweiz und Luxemburg. Die Analysten von Montega zeichnen sich dabei durch exzellente Kontakte zum Top-Management, profunde Marktkenntnisse und langjährige Erfahrung in der Analyse von deutschen Small- und MidCap-Unternehmen aus.

You can download the research here: Factsheet_NEU

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